Mark Sanchez, New York Jets- I guess it all depends on how you measure a good season. Last season, Sanchez helped lead a Jets team that missed the playoffs the year before to the AFC Championship game. Statistically, though, Sanchez’s year didn’t impress. Sanchez threw for just 2,444 yards in 15 games while also throwing eight more interceptions than touchdowns. Sanchez’s numbers will have to improve if he is to be taken seriously, and they should. Sanchez showed significant improvement in the playoffs, where posted a quarterback rating of 92.7 (compared to his regular season rating of 63.0) while throwing four touchdowns and just two interceptions. The addition of Santonio Holmes (even though he is suspended to start the year) and the fact that Braylon Edwards will be more adjusted to the system gives Sanchez more of a receiving threat than he had last year. The Jets will still primarily be a rushing team, so don’t expect Sanchez to put up MVP type numbers, but expect his stats to improve.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions- Stafford posted very similar stats to Sanchez in his rookie campaign. Stafford threw for 2,267 yards, 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, though he only played in 10 games due to injury. Stafford proved just how good he could be with a mammoth of a game against the Cleveland Browns where he threw for 422 yards and five touchdowns. But Stafford also showed some inconsistencies, as he also had three games where he threw three or more interceptions. Expect Stafford to be better this year. Stafford battled injuries throughout the year, as did stud wide receiver Calvin Johnson. When Johnson is healthy, he is one of the game’s elite receivers. The Lions also picked up Nate Burleson, who should take some of the coverage off of Johnson. Rookie Jahvid Best will help improve the running game which should take some pressure off of Stafford and the passing game. Stafford’s numbers will improve this year and don’t be surprised if he comes close to doubling his touchdown total from last year, especially if he and Johnson remain healthy.
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Like the other two, Freeman didn’t have a great rookie season. In 10 games, he threw for 1,855 yards, 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. Some weeks he was great, like his three-touchdown effort in a win against the Packers, and some weeks he was awful, like his five-interception performance in a loss to Carolina. It hurts losing top wide receiver Antonio Bryant to free agency, as now Freeman will have to adjust to a young group of receivers. Freeman should get solid production from tight end Kellen Winslow who caught for 884 yards last season. Freeman impressed in a short preseason outing where he completed all four of his passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. Expect Freeman to limit his interceptions this year, but he was too inconsistent last year, so he is still a year or two away from a breakout season.
Overall – None of these quarterbacks had a great rookie season statistically (combining for 35 touchdowns and 58 interceptions), so even if they perform poorly, it can’t really be considered a sophomore slump. When NFL handicapping the games this season, expect all three to have a better touchdown-interception ratio this year, while Stafford seems most likely to have a breakout season.
