The poor preseason record of the Indianapolis Colts over the last decade has made oddsmakers take notice and downgrade them significantly from how they would perform in the same situation during the regular season. That is the easy explanation for why the Colts are home underdogs at +3 on the NFL betting odds against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
Indy second-year head coach Jim Caldwell followed in the footsteps of Tony Dungy last preseason by going 1-3, which makes the Colts 11-23 over the last eight years. In the past five years, this same team has started the regular season at 13-0 or better twice, proving that the exhibition season is treated as just that and nothing more.
It is scary to think that Indianapolis can be even better than last year’s team coming off a Super Bowl appearance and 14-0 start, but the Colts will be getting former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders and WR Anthony Gonzalez back from knee injuries this season. Third-year safety Melvin Bullitt did an outstanding job filling in for Sanders, who tried to play but made it into two games before being placed on IR. In Gonzalez’s absence, rookie Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon stepped up to become key contributors in helping the team win the AFC championship.
The weakest link for Indy over the last few years – especially in the preseason – has been the replacements for All-Pro QB Peyton Manning. The name Jim Sorgi strikes fear in the mind of bettors, but he is no longer around. Instead, the Colts are grooming second-year players Curtis Painter and Tom Brandstater to back up Manning along with rookie Tim Hiller. All three players have more potential than Sorgi and will have the opportunity to prove themselves here.
The 49ers have a lot more to prove obviously since they have not made the playoffs since 2002. San Francisco head coach Mike Singletary went 3-1 in his first preseason a year ago, and his squad is only the second road team to be favored in Week 1. The Houston Texans were -2.5 at Arizona on Saturday but fell 19-16 after getting outscored 19-0 in the fourth quarter.
Glen Coffee also gave the 49ers some surprising news on Friday when the second-year RB abrubtly retired after telling Singletary that his heart simply was not in the game anymore. Singletary still felt his team had one of its best weeks of practice and will need to find a backup for starter Frank Gore between rookie Anthony Dixon and former Penn State QB Michael Robinson.
Former first-round pick Kentwan Balmer also has yet to practice for the 49ers, hurting their depth on the defensive line. The team signed rookie free agent Will Tukuafu to help fill the void left by Balmer. On a positive note, Singletary has already named rookie Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati as starters on the offensive line. Both Davis and Iupati are first-round draft picks.
Singletary has committed to former overall #1 pick Alex Smith as the starting QB, and he should have a couple lethal weapons in second-year WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis. Smith is coming off a solid year and should benefit from having Crabtree around for an entire season after he sat out the entire preseason and first month of last season due to a contract dispute.
At the time of publish we are still looking at possibly releasing a NFL pick on this game to premium members. If we do releasing anything it will be in the early morning after reading a little more info from the head coaches.
If you are going to bet this game on your own, Bookmaker is offering the best line on the Colts at +3 +105 while 5Dimes has the 49ers at -3 -115.