Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 16, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, Ohio
Opening Line: Washington Pick (-120)
Current Line: Washington -1
No Total or Money Line

The 7-6 Washington Redskins, coached by Mike Shanahan, are tied with the Dallas Cowboys a game behind the New York Giants in the NFC East. The Redskins and Cowboys are also tied with the Minnesota Vikings a game behind the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks for the two wild card spots in the NFC playoffs. They are desperate for a win as they travel to the 5-8 Cleveland Browns, coached by Pat Shurmur. Cleveland is technically still alive in the AFC playoffs, but it would take a miracle for that to happen.

The Redskins could be without sensational rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III who sprained his knee late in the Redskins’ come from behind 31-28 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week in overtime. He is listed as a game time decision and has been limited in practice all week. If he can’t go, rookie Kirk Cousins will get the start. Cousins threw a touchdown pass with 29 seconds left in regulation and then scored the game tying two point conversion against the Ravens to send the game into overtime. After a Baltimore punt in overtime was returned deep into Ravens’ territory, the Redskins kicked a 34 yard field goal to win the game.

Washington has won 4 straight games to get back into the playoff race. The Redskins are 8-5 ATS and the total is 7-6 this season. Cleveland has won 3 straight games, including a 30-7 win last week at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Browns are 8-4-1 ATS and the total is 4-9 this season. The Redskins and Browns have only played twice since 2001, with each team winning at home. Washington won the last meeting at home in 2008 14-11.

Washington is averaging 386.5 yards per game on offense, including 218.6 passing and 167.8 rushing yards. The Redskins lead the league in rushing. Washington is outscoring teams 26-25 this season. Washington is in the top 7 in the league in total and scoring offense.  The Redskins are +11 in turnovers this season. Washington has forced 23 sacks and allowed 29 this season. The Redskins are 62/169 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, Washington is allowing 388.1 yards per game on defense including 289.3 passing yards and 98.8 rushing yards. The Redskins are #28 in total defense and #31 against the pass, but #7 in the league against the run. The Redskins have 6 defensive touchdowns this season.

Griffin has completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,902 yards with 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw 4 or more touchdown passes in two consecutive games against the Eagles and Cowboys recently. Griffin already broke Cam Newton’s rookie record for rushing yards in a season. RG3 has 112 carries, 748 yards and 6 touchdowns. Griffin has been sacked 28 times this season. Cousins has completed 7 of 11 passes for 137 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Running back Alfred Morris has 253 carries, 1,235 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with a handful of catches. Morris is probable with an undisclosed illness. Besides Morris and Griffin, no other Washington back has more than 17 carries this season. Receiver Santana Moss has 32 catches, 468 yards and 7 touchdowns. Leonard Hankerson has 34 catches, 465 yards and a  touchdown. Pierre Garcon has 28 catches, 433 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a foot injury. Josh Morgan has 42 catches for 429 yards and a touchdown.  Tight end Fred Davis is out for the season. Logan Paulsen and Aldrick Robinson will also get some catches. Robinson has 3 touchdown catches. The Redskin defense is also banged up with 12 players listed on the injury report.

Cleveland is averaging 321.8 yards per game on offense, including 221.4 passing yards, and 1005 rushing yards. The Browns are being outscored 21-20 this season. Cleveland is 20th or worse in all offensive categories. The Browns are +8 in turnovers. Cleveland has allowed 24 sacks this season and forced 34 of their own. The Browns are 62/193 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, Cleveland is allowing 363.2 yards per game, including 242.7 passing yards and 120.5 rushing yards. The Browns are 17th or worse in all defensive categories except scoring defense where they are #9. This is mainly due to the turnovers they force. The Browns have a punt return for a touchdown and 2 defensive scores.

Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has completed 57% of his passes for 3,037 yards with 13 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He has 23 carries for 98 yards and has been sacked 24 times. Running back Trent Richardson has 247 carries, 869 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 45 catches, 348 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a chest injury. Montario Hardesty has 46 catches, 215 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury. No other Brown has more than 6 carries.

Wide receiver Josh Gordon has 42 catches, 732 yards and 5 touchdowns. Greg Little has 39 carries, 477 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Benjamin Watson has 37 catches, 378 yards and 3 touchdowns. Punt and kick returner Josh Cribbs is probable with a knee injury. Seventeen Browns are listed on the injury report including 8 defensive players.

Washington is 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30 points, after a straight up win and overall, 4-1 after a cover, after rushing for more than 150 yards, and in December, 6-2 in week 15, 5-2after gaining more than 350 yards, 10-26-3 against teams with losing records, 0-5-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards.

Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in December,  4-0 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, and overall, 6-1 against teams with winning records, 5-1 on grass, and after allowing 15 points or less, 4-1 at home, 12-3-1 after gaining more than 350 yards, 6-2 after rushing for more than 150 yards, 5-2 in week 15, and 7-3-1 at home against teams with winning road records.

Obviously, keep an eye on the Griffin situation. Cousins is a talented quarterback, but he isn’t RG3. If Griffin doesn’t go the redskins would probably lean on Morris, but he is sick right now. I still think the Redskins pull out a close road win on the road.

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