NFC Wild Card Playoff
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina
Saturday, January 3, 2015, 4:20 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Carolina -4 1/2 (-105)
Current Line: Carolina -6 1/2
Opening Total: 39
Current Total: 38
Opening Money Line: Panthers -220 / Cardinals +185
Current Money Line: Panthers -300 / Cardinals +250
In late November, the Arizona Cardinals were 9-1 but have gone 2-4 since then. The Cardinals fell from the best record in football to limping into the playoffs as an 11-5 wild card team. Arizona finished a game behind the 12-4 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. The Cardinals will travel to the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers. As recently as December 7, Carolina was coming off a six game losing streak, but the Panthers have won 4 straight games to win the NFC South Division title. Carolina became only the second NFL team in history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record.
The winner between Arizona and Carolina will either travel to the Seahawks or the Green Bay Packers next week in the divisional playoffs depending on who wins between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions in the other NFC Wild Card game.
Since 2001, Carolina leads the series against Arizona 7-5. The Cardinals have won 2 straight games in the series both in Arizona, including 22-6 last season. Arizona beat Carolina in Charlotte 33-13 in the 2009 Divisional playoffs.
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Arizona is coached by Bruce Arians. The losses for the Cardinals came at the Denver Broncos 41-20, Seattle Seahawks 19-3, Atlanta Falcons 29-18 and San Francisco 49ers last week 20-17, plus at home against the Seahawks 35-6. Arizona has lost 2 straight games. The Cardinals have home wins over the San Diego Chargers 18-17, San Francisco 49ers 23-14, Washington Redskins 30-20, Philadelphia Eagles 24-20, St. Louis Rams 31-14, Detroit Lions 14-6 and the Kansas City Chiefs 17-14. Arizona also has road wins at the New York Giants 25-14, Oakland Raiders 24-13, Dallas Cowboys 28-17 and St. Louis Rams 12-6. The Cardinals are 11-5 ATS and the total is 5-10-1 this season. Arizona was a 6.5 point underdog against San Francisco and the total was 38.
Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. The Panthers have a tie at the Cincinnati Bengals 37-37. Carolina has road losses at the Baltimore Ravens 38-10, Packers 38-17, Philadelphia Eagles 45-21, and Minnesota Vikings 31-13, plus home losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers 37-19, Seahawks 13-9, New Orleans Saints 28-10 and Atlanta Falcons 19-17. Carolina has home wins over the Lions 24-7, Chicago Bears 31-24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-17, and Cleveland Browns 17-13, along with road wins over the Buccaneers 20-14, Saints 41-10 and Falcons 34-3 to clinch the NFC South title last week. Carolina is 8-8 ATS and the total is 8-8 this season. The Panthers were 2.5 point underdogs against the Falcons and the total was 48.
Arizona is outscoring teams 19.4-18.7 this season. The Cardinals are #5 in points allowed and #24 in scoring. Arizona is averaging 320 yards per game on offense including 238 passing and 82 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals are #24 in total offense and #31 in rushing. On defense, Arizona is allowing 368 yards per game including 260 passing and 109 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals are #29 in pass defense and #24 in total defense. Arizona is 93/228 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 86/228. The Cardinals have forced 35 sacks and allowed 28 this season. Arizona is +8 in turnovers. The Cardinals have four defensive and and one special teams touchdowns and have allowed a defensive touchdown.
What has made the Cardinals’ great season even more remarkable is the fact that Arizona has used 4 quarterbacks this season. Carson Palmer missed three games with a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder. He was replaced by Drew Stanton. Even rookie Logan Thomas took some snaps against the Broncos when Stanton was injured. Palmer tore his ACL and is out for the season. Stanton is out indefinitely with a knee injury. He was replaced by Ryan Lindley against the Rams. Lindley started the last two games and will start the playoff game. Lindley has thrown for 562 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Palmer completed 62.9% of his passes for 1,626 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Stanton has thrown for 1,711 yards with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 25 carries for 63 yards. Thomas was only 1/8 against the Broncos but the one completion was an 81 yard touchdown pass. Thomas could also see some snaps if Lindley falters.
Running back Andre Ellington has 201 carries for 660 yards with 3 touchdowns, plus 46 catches for 395 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for a season with a hip injury. Jonathan Dwyer, Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor will split the carries without Ellington. The trio has combined for almost 500 rushing yards and only 2 touchdowns. Taylor does have 3 touchdown catches though.
Receiver Michael Floyd has 47 catches for 841 yards and 6 touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald has 63 catches for 784 yards and 2 touchdowns. John Brown has 48 catches for 696 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end John Carlson has 33 catches for 350 yards and a touchdown. Seven defensive players are questionable to out for the Cardinals.
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Carolina is being outscored 23-21 this season. The Panthers are #19 in scoring and #21 in points allowed. Carolina is averaging 347 yards per game on offense including 219 passing and 127 rushing yards per game. The Panthers are #16 in total offense, #19 in passing and #7 in rushing. Carolina is allowing 340 yards per game on defense including 228 passing and 112 rushing yards. The Panthers are in the top eleven in both passing and total defense. Carolina is 99/232 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 94/221. The Panthers have forced 40 sacks and allowed 42 this season. Carolina has one return touchdown along with 2 defensive scores and has allowed 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season. The Panthers are +3 in turnovers.
Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has completed 58.5% of his passes for 3,127 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions along with 103 carries for 539 yards and 5 touchdowns. Newton was involved in a rollover car accident a few weeks ago and suffered some broken bones in his back. He started the last two weeks after missing a game and isn’t listed on the injury report this week. Derek Anderson started both games against Tampa Bay and played in garbage time of blowouts against Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay and New Orleans. He has thrown for 701 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. He is probable with the flu.
Running back Jonathan Stewart has 175 carries for 809 yards with 3 touchdowns, plus 25 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown. DeAngelo Williams has 62 carries for 219 yards, plus 5 catches. He is probable after missing five games with a broken finger. Receiver Kelvin Benjamin has 73 catches for 1,008 yards and 9 touchdowns. Tight end Greg Olson has 84 catches for 1,008 yards and 6 touchdowns. Receiver Jerricho Cotchery has 48 catches for 580 yards and a touchdown. Five defensive players and six offensive linemen are questionable or out for the Panthers.
Arizona is 9-1 ATS against teams with losing home records, 7-1 on grass, 5-1 in playoff games, and after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 8-2 in Saturday games, 13-4 against NFC teams, 9-3 after a straight up loss, overall and in road games, 18-6 against teams with losing records, 12-4 after a cover, 6-2 after accumulating 350 total yards or more, 8-3 in January, and after passing for over 250 yards. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.
Carolina is 5-2-1 ATS in Saturday games, 2-5 after allowing less than 15 points, 6-19-1 after passing for less than 150 yards, 1-4 on grass, 1-5 in January, and 0-4 after a cover.
Neither of these teams are great on offense, but the Arizona offense is especially anemic with Lindley at quarterback. They already lost their leading rusher and really have no run game to speak of. Carolina is playing their best football of the year right now, but they still only have 7 wins. Seven win teams usually aren’t favored over eleven win teams but these teams are going in opposite directions. I like the Panthers to win a low scoring defensive struggle.
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