Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, December 13, 2015, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Carolina -7 (-120)
Current Line: Carolina -9 (+100)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 46 1/2
Opening Money Line: Panthers -375 / Falcons +305
Current Money Line: Panthers -390 / Falcons +320
The 12-0 Carolina Panthers have already clinched the NFC South division title. The Panthers host the 6-6 Atlanta Falcons Sunday. Carolina can clinch a first round bye with a win and a loss by the Green Bay Packers to the Dallas Cowboys. The Falcons are tied the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and both teams are a game behind the Seattle Seahawks for the last wild card spot in the NFC.
Atlanta leads the series 24-16 against Carolina. Carolina has won 4 of the last 5 games against Atlanta. The teams split the season series last year with each winning on the road. The Falcons won in Charlotte 19-16 and the Panthers won in Atlanta 34-3 in the last game of the season. The latter game was for the NFC South title even though both teams had losing records. The two teams will meet in Atlanta in two weeks.
Atlanta is coached by Dan Quinn. The Falcons began the season 6-1 but have lost five straight games. Atlanta has home wins over the Philadelphia Eagles 26-24, Houston Texans 48-21, and Washington Redskins 25-19, along with road wins at the New York Giants 24-20, Dallas Cowboys 39-28 and Tennessee Titans 10-7. Atlanta has road losses at the New Orleans Saints 31-21, San Francisco 49ers 17-16 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-19 last week, along with home losses to the Buccaneers 23-20, Indianapolis Colts 24-21 and Minnesota Vikings 20-10.
Atlanta was a 1 point underdog against Tampa Bay and the total was 46.5. Tampa Bay took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. Atlanta scored 12 straight points, all field goals to take a 12-7 lead midway through the third. The Buccaneers would take a 16-12 lead into the fourth. The Falcons regained the lead 19-16 early in the fourth. Tampa scored with 1:39 left to make it 23-19. An Atlanta interception sealed the win for the Buccaneers. The Falcons are 4-8 ATS and the total is 2-9-1 this season.
Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. Carolina has road wins at the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37-23, Seattle Seahawks 27-23, Tennessee Titans 27-10, Dallas Cowboys 33-14 and New Orleans Saints 41-38 last week. The Panthers also have home wins over the Houston Texans 24-17, New Orleans Saints 27-22, Philadelphia Eagles 27-16, Indianapolis Colts 29-26 in overtime, Green Bay Packers 37-29 and Washington Redskins 44-16.
Carolina was a 5.5 point favorite against New Orleans and the total was 50.5. New Orleans jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, including a 31 yard fumble return for a touchdown. Carolina scored 13 straight points and were about to tie it up. However, the Saints blocked the extra point and ran it back for the first ever defensive two point conversion in NFL hostory. The Saints took a 16-13 lead into halftime. Carolina scored two straight touchdowns to take a 27-16 lead. New Orleans scored 15 points to regain the lead 31-27. The teams traded touchdowns before Carolina scored the game winning touchdown with just over a minute left in the game. Carolina QB Cam Newton threw for 331 yards with 5 touchdowns and an interception. The Panthers overcame three turnovers to remain perfect on the season. Carolina is 9-3 ATS and the total is 8-3-1 this season.
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Atlanta is outscoring teams 25-21 this season. Atlanta is #14 in scoring and #12 in points allowed. The Falcons average 387 yards per game on offense, including 278 passing and 109 rushing yards. Atlanta is in the top six in total and passing offense. On defense, the Falcons are allowing 343 total yards per game including 240 passing and 103 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 88/187 on third and fourth down conversions. Opponents are 71/162 on third and fourth down conversions. The Falcons have forced 13 sacks and allowed 23 this season. The Falcons are -2 in turnovers. The Falcons have four defensive touchdowns this season, but have allowed two as well.
Quarterback Matt Ryan has completed 66% of his passes for 3,481 yards with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and also has 63 rushing yards.
Running back Devonta Freeman has 181 carries for 811 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 58 catches for 476 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tevin Coleman has 80 carries for 354 yards and a touchdown. Terron Ward has 26 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, along with 9 catches for 73 yards.
Receiver Julio Jones has 102 catches for 1,338 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Tight end Jacob Tamme has 47 catches for 541 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Leonard Hankerson has 26 catches for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a hamstring injury. Roddy White has 30 catches for 347 yards and a touchdown. Devin Hester is probable with a toe injury. Nick Williams and fullback Patrick DiMarco each have two touchdown catches. Kicker Matt Bryant is out for the season with a quad injury. The Falcons signed veteran Shayne Graham to replace him.
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Carolina is outscoring teams 31-20 this season. The Panthers are #3 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. Carolina is averaging 361 total yards per game including 219 passing and 142 rushing. The Panthers are #3 in rushing but #27 in passing. On defense, Carolina allows 314 total yards including 227 passing and 87 rushing yards. The Panthers are in the top six in all three categories. Carolina is 66/162 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 70/185. The Panthers have forced 35 sacks and allowed 22 this season. Carolina is +14 in turnovers. The Panthers have 5 defensive touchdowns and have allowed 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns.
Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 58.4% of his passes for 2,797 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 108 carries for 476 rushing yards and sevens touchdowns. Newton is considered the MVP favorite despite the Panthers not really having a number one receiver after Kelvin Benjamin suffered a torn ACL in the pre-season.
Tight end Greg Olsen has 62 catches for 917 yards with 6 touchdowns. Receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. has 35 catches for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jerricho Cotchery has 27 catches for 352 yards and 2 touchdowns. Devin Funchess has 19 catches for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns. Corey Brown has 19 catches for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. Ed Dickson has 14 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown.
Running back Jonathan Stewart has 232 carries for 913 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 15 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. Mike Tolbert and Cameron Artis-Payne will also get some carries. Tolbert has 13 catches for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in week 14, 38-14-1 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, 1-4 on grass, 0-8 overall, 0-7 after failing to cover, 0-6 against NFC teams, 0-5 after a straight up loss, after allowing 350 total yards or more, and after passing for 250 yards or more, 0-4 in road games and against NFC South teams. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series recently. The last four games have gone under the total in this series, and the under is 14-5-1 in Charlotte between the teams.
Carolina is 4-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more, 6-1 after gaining 350 total yards or more and against NFC teams, 5-1 after failing to cover, and on grass, 4-1 after scoring more than 30 points, after a straight up win, after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, overall, and after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 25-12-1 in December, 3-7 after rushing for 150 yards or more, and 2-5 after passing for 250 yards or more. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. Carolina has covered four of the last five against Atlanta, and the Panthers are 5-2 in Charlotte against the Falcons.
Carolina will be favored in each of their four remaining contests. The thing is Atlanta is desperate for a win and I think the Falcons pull off the upset on the road to stay in the playoff hunt. Carolina has had some close calls and are due for a loss in a high scoring game.
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