2016 NFL Playoffs
NFC Wild Card Game
#5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Washington Redskins
FedEx Field – Landover, Maryland
Sunday, January 10, 2016, 4:40 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Washington Pick
Current Line: Washington -1 (-105)
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 45
Opening Money Line: Redskins -110 / Packers -110
Current Money Line: Redskins -115 / Packers -105
The 10-6 Green Bay Packers travel to the 9-7 Washington Redskins in the last Wild Card game of the weekend. The Redskins won the NFC East and the #4 seed in the NFC playoffs. Green Bay finished second in the NFC North after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week with the division title on the line for both teams. The winner of this game will either travel to the Carolina Panthers or Arizona Cardinals, depending on who wins between the Vikings and Seattle Seahawks earlier Sunday.
Green Bay leads the series 19-14-1 against Washington. The teams have been playing since 1932 but this is only the third playoff meeting and first since 1972. The Packers have won five of the last six games against the Redskins including 38-20 in 2013 at Lambeau. These two teams will play again next year in this same stadium.
Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers have home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 27-17, Kansas City Chiefs 38-28, St. Louis Rams 24-10, San Diego Chargers 27-20 and Dallas Cowboys 28-7, along with road wins at the Chicago Bears 31-23, San Francisco 49ers 17-3, Minnesota Vikings 30-13, Detroit Lions 27-23 and Oakland Raiders 30-20. Green Bay has road losses at the Denver Broncos 29-10, Carolina Panthers 37-29 and Arizona Cardinals 38-8, along with home losses to the Lions 18-16, Bears 17-13 and Vikings 20-13 last week. The Packers have lost two straight games.
Green Bay was a three point favorite against Minnesota and the total was 43.5. The NFC North title was on the line for both teams, but they had already clinched playoff berths. The Vikings would take a 6-3 lead into halftime. In the third quarter, Minnesota added two touchdowns including a 55 yard fumble return for a touchdown to make it 20-3. Green Bay rallied to within 20-13 with 5:35 left. On the ensuing kickoff, Minnesota’s Cordarrelle Patterson returned it from the Minnesota one all the way to the Green Bay 31. However, he fumbled and the Packers recovered at their own 23. Green Bay drove down the field and had fourth and goal at the Minnesota 13. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw an interception in the end zone. After a Minnesota three and out, Green Bay took over at their own 42 with 58 seconds left and no timeouts. They got to the Minnesota 38 but were incomplete on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game. The Packers had won the NFC North title for four straight seasons before last week. Each team had two turnovers. Green Bay is 9-7 ATS and the total is 5-11 this season.
Washington is coached by Jay Gruden. The Redskins have home wins over the St. Louis Rams 24-10, Eagles 23-20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-30, New Orleans Saints 47-14, New York Giants 20-14 and Buffalo Bills 35-25, plus road wins at the Chicago Bears 24-21, Philadelphia Eagles 38-24 and Dallas Cowboys 34-23 last week. The Redskins have won 4 straight games. Washington has home losses to the Miami Dolphins 17-10 and Cowboys 19-16, plus road losses at the Giants 32-21, Atlanta Falcons 25-19, New York Jets 34-20, New England Patriots 27-10, and Carolina Panthers 44-16.
Washington was a 3 point favorite at Dallas last week and the total was 41. The Redskins took an early 24-0 lead, but the Cowboys would pull to within 24-14 by halftime. Washington would score 10 points to open the second half and led 34-14. The Cowboys added a late safety and touchdown to make the final 34-23. Dallas had 512 total yards, but also had four turnovers. Washington is 9-7 ATS and the total is 9-7 this season.
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Green Bay is outscoring teams 23-20 this season. The Packers are averaging 335 yards per game on offense including 219 passing and 116 rushing yards. The Packers are #23 in total offense and #25 in passing. On defense, the Packers are allowing 347 yards per game including 228 passing and 119 rushing yards. Green Bay is #6 in pass defense. The Packers are 81/229 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 89/241. Green Bay has forced 43 sacks and has allowed 47 this season. The Packers are +5 in turnovers with 3 defensive touchdowns. Green Bay has also allowed 3 defensive touchdowns.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 60.7% of his passes for 3,821 yards along with 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 58 carries for 344 yards and a touchdown. Scott Tolzien is the back-up.
Running back Eddie Lacy has 187 carries for 758 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 20 catches for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a rib injury. James Starks has 148 carries for 601 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 43 catches for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Receiver Randall Cobb has 79 catches for 829 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 50 rushing yards. James Jones has 50 catches for 890 yards and 8 touchdowns. Tight end Richard Rodgers has 58 catches for 510 yards and 8 touchdowns. Davante Adams has 50 catches for 483 yards and a touchdown. Ty Montgomery has 15 catches for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is out for the season with an ankle injury. Receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during the pre-season. Six defensive players are listed on the injury report.
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Washington is outscoring teams 24.2-23.7 this season. The Redskins are #10 in scoring. Washington is averaging 354 total yards per game on offense, including 256 passing and 98 rushing yards. Washington is allowing 381 yards per game on defense, including 258 passing and 123 rushing yards. The Redskins are #25 or worse in all three categories. Washington is 101/228 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 89/227. The Redskins have forced 38 sacks and allowed 27 this season. Washington is +5 in turnovers. The Redskins have five defensive/special teams touchdowns and have allowed four as well.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has completed 69.8% of his passes for 4,166 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and has 5 rushing touchdowns. He took over as the starter in the pre-season for former first round pick Robert Griffin III after Griffin suffered a concussion. Griifin is the third stringer behind Colt McCoy.
Alfred Morris has 202 carries for 751 yards and a touchdown, plus 10 catches for 55 yards. Rookie Matt Jones has 144 carries for 490 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 304 yards and a touchdown. He is doubtful with a hip injury. Chris Thompson has 35 carries for 216 yards, along with 35 catches for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Tight end Jordan Reed has 87 catches for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. Receiver Pierre Garcon has 72 catches for 777 yards and 6 touchdowns. DeSean Jackson has 30 catches for 528 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jamison Crowder has 59 catches for 604 yards and 2 touchdown. Ryan Grant has 23 catches for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is questionable with an ab injury. Receiver Andre Roberts and Tight ends Derek Carrier, Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen are all on injured reserve. Twelve defensive players and three offensive linemen are on the injury report for the Redskins.
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in playoff road games, after passing for 250 yards or more and allowing less than 150 passing yards, 5-2-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, 5-2 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 7-3 in playoff games and road games, 2-7 on grass and 1-4 against teams with winning records. The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in this series recently and were favored in each of those contests.
Washington is 4-0 ATS overall, 4-1 against NFC teams and on grass, 5-2 at home, 9-4 after scoring more than 30 points, 5-11 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, and 6-15 after a cover. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in this series recently.
Washington is 9-7 this season and has won four straight games. However, they don’t have a win over a team with a winning record, only 8-8 Buffalo. Green Bay has struggled on offense recently, but Washington is banged up on defense. In fact, both teams have terrible defenses. This should be a high scoring game. I like the Packers to win a close game. Green bay should probably be favored even on the road, but they are a one point underdog.
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