#22 Arizona St Sun Devils at Utah Utes
Rice-Eccles Stadium – Salt Lake City, Utah
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports
Opening Line: Arizona St -3 (-105)
Current Line: Arizona St -3 1/2
Opening Total: 49 1/2
Current Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: ASU -170 / Utah +150
Current Money Line: ASU -175 / Utah +155
It has been a rough entry into the Pac 12 for the Utah Utes, who left the Mountain West to join the conference. The Utes have dropped their first two conference games. It is sort of like an 8th grader who was the biggest kid in his junior high going to high school as a freshman and realizing he is now one of the smallest kids in the school. Utah is coached by Kyle Whittingham, and is 2-2 this season. The Utes have wins over Montana St at home 27-10 and at arch-rival BYU 54-10. Utah has losses as USC 23-14 and last week at home versus Washington 31-14. This week Utah hosts Arizona St who is ranked #22 in the country. Arizona St is 4-1 this season under coach Dennis Erickson, with the only loss coming at Illinois 17-14. The Sun Devils have home wins over UC-Davis 48-14, Missouri 37-30 in overtime, USC 43-22, and last week versus Oregon St 35-20. Arizona St leads the series against Utah 16-6, but they haven’t played since 1993. The two schools were conference rivals decades ago in the WAC before Arizona and Arizona St joined the Pac 10 in 1978.
Arizona St got off to a sluggish start last week against Oregon St, as they were down 13-0 early in the second quarter. However, the Sun Devils scored three second quarter touchdowns to take a 21-13 lead at halftime. The Sun Devils ended up winning 35-20, but they didn’t cover the 17.5 college football betting line. Oregon St actually had more total yards (388) than Arizona St (367), but the Beavers were unable to overcome 13 penalties and 5 turnovers. Arizona St wasn’t exactly crisp either with 6 penalties and 4 turnovers. The Sun Devils had a 78 yards punt return for a touchdown from Jamal Miles in the second quarter.
Arizona St is averaging 426 yards a game including 285 passing yards. The Sun Devils are scoring 35.4 points a game. ASU has 10 turnovers and has allowed 12 sacks this season. The Sun Devils are 25/68 on third and fourth down conversions and 16/21 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns. Arizona St is giving up 354.8 total yards a game including 119.4 rushing yards a game. The Sun Devils are allowing 20.6 points a game on defense. ASU has forced 13 turnovers and 14 sacks this season. Sun Devil opponents are 23/78 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/19 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns.
Arizona St quarterback Brock Osweiler is 117/172 passing for 1,352 yards, 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 35 carries for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Cameron Marshall has 81 carries, 374 yards, and 7 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 123 yards. He is listed as probable with an ankle injury for the Utah game. Jamal Miles and Kyle Middlebrooks also get significant carries. Receiver Aaron Pflugrad has 25 catches, 375 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Gerell Robinson has 19 receptions, 302 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Miles has 24 catches, 172 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Alex Garoutte is 22/23 on extra points, and 3/6 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. ASU has 14 players listed on the injury report including 9 that are out indefinitely or for the season. The offensive line and the defense have been especially hard hit with 4 offensive linemen and 8 defensive players listed.
Utah was only down 10-7 at halftime last week at home against Washington. However, Ute quarterback Jordan Wynn injured his non-throwing shoulder and didn’t return for the second half. Wynn is listed as doubtful for the ASU game. After halftime, Washington outscored them 21-7 to win 31-14. Utah’s second half touchdown came with 7 seconds left in the game. Back-up quarterback Jon Hays wasn’t awful as he had almost identical numbers to Wynn, but the Utes were unable to overcome 5 turnovers in the game. Utah had 305 total yards but only 17 rushing yards. Washington had 411 total yards including 185 rushing yards.
Utah is averaging 353.5 total yards a game including 132.8 rushing yards. The Utes are scoring 27.2 points a game. Utah has 8 turnovers and has allowed 6 sacks. Utah is 21/59 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/15 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. The Utes are giving up 359.8 yards a game including 105.8 rushing yards. Utah is allowing 18.5 points a game. Utah opponents are 26/68 on third and fourth down conversions, and 5/9 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Wynn is 66/116 passing for 727 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Hays went 10/17 for 156 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the second half of the Washington game in his only action of the season. Running Back John White IV has 75 carries, 415 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 4 catches, 16 yards, and a touchdown. He has more than double the carries of the rest of the team combined. Receiver DeVonte Christopher has 21 catches, 330 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dres Anderson has 12 catches, 195 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dallin Rogers has 16 catches, 143 yards, and a touchdown. Tight end Jake Murphy has only 3 catches but one of them went for a touchdown. Murphy is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Kicker Coleman Petersen is 13/14 on extra points and 4/6 on field goals with a long of 44 yards. Offensive linemen Tony Bergstrom (knee) and Isaac Asiata (ankle) are both questionable this week. Utah has 4 players that are out indefinitely or for the season.
Utah is 1-3 against the spread this season and 3 of the 4 games have gone under the total. Arizona St is 1-4 ATS this season and 4 of the 5 games have gone over the total. The Sun Devils are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 conference games, 9-4 ATS in the last 13 after failing to cover in the previous game, 1-4 in their last 5 overall, and 2-9 in the last 11 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points. The Utes are 28-10-1 in the last 39 as an underdog, including 15-6-1 as a dog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a straight up loss, and as a home underdog, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 1-5 in the last 6 overall, 0-4 in the last 4 home games, and 0-5 in the last 5 on turf.
Both these teams are banged up, especially the Sun Devils. Both teams also turn the ball over a lot. I still like Arizona St to win and cover the 3 1/2 point spread even on the road.
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