Nevada Wolf Pack at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Jones AT&T Stadium – Lubbock, Texas
Saturday, September 24, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox College Sports
Opening Line: Texas Tech -20
Current Line: Texas Tech -15 1/2
Opening Total: 62 1/2
Current Total: 61 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas Tech -1100 / Nevada +700
Current Money Line: Texas Tech -700 / Nevada +550
Texas Tech and Nevada meet for the second time ever Saturday in Lubbock. Texas Tech won in Reno in 2008 35-19. Nevada is 1-1 under coach Chris Ault as the Wolf Pack are on a brutal four game road trip to start the season. Nevada lost at Oregon 69-20 to start the season and last week they escaped with a 17-14 victory at San Jose St. Nevada has this game at Texas tech and then travels to Boise next week before they finally get a home game. Texas Tech is 2-0 under coach Tommy Tuberville with easy wins over Texas St 50-10 and at New Mexico 59-13.
Nevada won a sloppy 17-14 game at San Jose St last week, in a game that had 4 turnovers on both sides. Nevada had 373 yards in the game including 261 rushing yards. San Jose St had 290 total yards including 138 rushing yards. Nevada was up 14-7 at halftime behind two rushing touchdowns from Mike Ball and held on for the win.
Nevada is averaging 444.5 yards and 18.5 points a game. The Wolf Pack is seventh in the country in rushing with 272 yards a game. Nevada has 7 turnovers and has allowed one sack. The Wolf Pack are 16/37 on third and fourth down conversions. Nevada is allowing 446.5 yards and 41.5 points a game. Nevada is allowing 205 rushing yards. They have forced 4 turnovers and 2 sacks. Nevada opponents are 13/33 on third and fourth down conversions.
Nevada quarterback Tyler Lantrip is 32/56 passing for 331 yards for one touchdown and 4 interceptions, along with 24 carries for 105 yards. Running back Ball has 43 carries for 223 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also has the Wolf Pack’s only receiving touchdown on his only catch of the year. Stefphon Jefferson has 22 carries for 137 yards and one touchdown. Receiver Rishard Matthews has 15 catches for 177 yards. Kicker Anthony Martinez is 4/5 on extra points and 1/2 on field goals with an 18 yard kick.
Texas Tech was up 59-7 in the fourth quarter when New Mexico kicked two late field goals to make the final score 59-13. I guess New Mexico felt better about themselves losing by 46 instead of 52. Texas Tech had 624 total yards, including 446 passing yards. The Red Raiders had 34 first downs. Tech quarterback Seth Doege was 40/44 passing for 401 yards, 5 touchdowns and an interception in the rout. New Mexico had 337 yards in the game, but 3 turnovers didn’t help them much.
Texas Tech is putting up some huge numbers but they haven’t played anyone yet. It is kind of like playing Madden football against the computer on rookie level. You will win easily but it won’t really help you when you play tougher competition. Texas tech is averaging 564.5 yards a game including 397 passing yards. Both are #3 in the nation, and the Red Raiders are averaging 54.5 points a game, which is second in the nation. The Red Raiders have 3 turnovers and have allowed 2 sacks. Texas Tech is 18/28 on third and fourth down conversions. The Red Raiders are holding teams to 334 total yards and 11.5 points a game. Texas tech has forced 5 sacks and 7 turnovers. Tech opponents are 14/36 on third and fourth down conversions.
Quarterback Doege is 63/77 passing with 727 yards, and 8 touchdowns with no interceptions. Red Raider running back Eric Stephens has 35 carries for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 63 yards. Receiver Darrin Moore has 21 catches, 339 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Eric Ward has 10 catches, 93 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Donnie Carona is 14/14 on extra points and 1/1 on field goals with a 23 yard kick.
Texas Tech is 2-0 against the spread this season and the total is 1-1. Nevada is 0-2 against the spread this season and the total is 1-1. Nevada is 11-5 in their last 16 following a straight up win, and 5-11 in their last 16 following a straight up win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, and 0-4 in the last 4 versus Big 12 teams. The Red Raiders are 4-1-1 in their last 6 as a favorite, including 4-0 as a favorite of 10.5 or more, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
This is by far the toughest test Texas Tech has faced so far, and Nevada is rebuilding this year after losing quarterback Colin Kaepernick to the NFL. Nevada needs to control the clock and keep the high powered Texas Tech offense off the field. That is easier said than done as Nevada was torched 69-20 by another prolific offense, the Oregon Ducks earlier in the season. Wiseguys seem to think either Nevada is underrated or Texas Tech is overrated after fattening up on cupcakes as the line has moved from Tech -20 to -15 1/2. I think that is a good value bet as Texas Tech is strong at home.
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