Betting Odds from Bookmaker

(20) LOUISVILLE

From my season preview of Cardinals:

There’s a lot of reasons to expect Louisville to win the Big East, but at the top of that list of reasons is QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is recognized as one of the best true freshman quarterbacks in the nation last year. He completed 64.5% of his passes last year and threw 14 TDs while also running for four TDs, as well. He’s a strong and gifted quarterback and will be the main reason Louisville will win the Big East this year.

It gets even better when you look at Bridgewater’s targets. He had a few prime candidates to throw the ball to: Eli Rogers, Michaelee Harris, and DeVante Parker. Rogers is nearly impossible for defensive backs to keep in check while Harris’ great hands make him an excellent receiver as well. Parker is 6’3″ and has great goal line potential with his ability to raise up against smaller defenders and grab balls in crowds. Six of his 18 receptions last year were for TDs. Also, Scott Radcliff led the spring game with nine catches for 119 yds.

—

So far, Teddy Bridgewater has not disappointed, nor have the Cardinals. They’ve stormed out of the gates 3-0 with impressive victories over Kentucky, Missouri State, and North Carolina.

The match last week against UNC was a bit of a scare though. The Tar Heels went on a late run and posted 20 points in the fourth quarter, before Andrew Johnson deflected a fourth down pass in the end zone with only 1:53 remaining in the game, to get possession back for the Cards, as they were able to hang on following the stop.

They led 36-7 at the half, as Bridgewater threw three TDs, a 32 yard pass to Charles Gaines, a 15 harder to Eli Rogers and a four harder to Nick Heuser. In addition to those three scores in the air, John Wallace ran one in fro 22 yards out, and Jeremy Wright scored from 12 out. The lone UNC score came at 6:19 in the second quarter on a 44-yard pass to Romar Morris, but the Tar Heels wouldn’t score from that point onwards until a two-yard pass to Eric Ebron with 5:09 remaining in the third quarter.

It was the fourth quarter that was disastrous for the Cardinals, as they allowed Ebron hand Morris to both score again, Morris on a 50 yard air out, following which the Tar Heels failed a two point conversion, which would have pulled them within a field goal of pushing overtime. That was what set up the aforementioned deflection, as the Tar Heels had no choice but to go for a touchdown on their last drive.

This Week against FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL:

Louisville is hoping things go easier against a Florida International squad that is nearly a two-touchdown underdog at 13.5 points according to college football oddsmakers at Bookmaker. The game, which will air on ESPN 3, will feature a Louisville pass offense which ranks 26th in the nation with 290.0 yards per game, behind Bridgewater’s strong arm.

Florida Int’l, of the Sun Belt conference, has been poor defensively, giving up 39 points per game, and ranking among the worst in the nation. It showed even against a team like Duke, who the Golden Panthers surrendered 46 points to, though Duke has been tough this year, somehow. The overtime loss to Akron stung, and Conference USA school UCF beat the Panthers by 13 in Orlando.

Florida International’s offense has been decent, passing for 237 yards per game (61st in the nation) and rushing for 183.0 yards per game (52nd in the nation), but it takes more than decent offense to win when the defense is giving up more than four touchdowns every single week.

Sophomore quarterback in-state product Jake Medlock has been fair, throwing 57.3 percent of his passes for completions, but his QB rating is still low at 128.1 because he has been sacked eight times and only thrown four TDs. He has, however, thrown no picks yet in this young season.

THE FINAL WORD:

82.3 percent of bettors on Bookmaker are picking Louisville to cover the spread as of midnight Saturday. 92.3 percent of bettors predict the total will go under, and 60 percent of bettors are picking Louisville on the money line at -500. The Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating more than 450 total yards.

In addition to this, the Cardinals are 35-16 ATS vs their last 51 non-conference opponents, while the total has gone UNDER in 9 of the last 11 games in which the Cardinals have passed for more than 280 yards in the previous game, and it has also gone UNDER In 7 of the last 10 on turf for Louisville. The total is 8-1-1 UNDER in the Golden Panthers last 10 games following an ATS win.

—

Want to crush the bookies? Make sure to check out our paid pick plans for the 2012 season. Our handicapping team has an excellent track record of lining people’s pockets, so get in on the gravy train!