Tip off: 9:55 PM EST
Spread: UNLV -5.5
Total: 135
M/L: UNLV -240, COL +200
Colorado
The Bufflaloes accomplished just what they wanted to this season: They won the Pac-12 and earned their berth into the Big Dance. Now, what they do with it from here is what will completely define their season.
The Buffaloes did not face a ranked opponent all season and are going to have their hands full with the Runnin’ Rebels, because while they won 23 of their 34 games this season, they did so without putting up overly impressive stats. They rank in the middle of the pack in scoring (67.6 per game) and are a slightly above average rebounding team (35.7 per game).
Their attack is very balanced. Four of their five starters average double figure scoring, but Carlon Brown leads the way with only 12.6 points per game. Andre Roberson contributes a double double, with 11.6 points per game and 11.1 rebounds per game. The 6’7″ sophomore gets off the floor well and blocks 1.9 shots per game, up per-minute and per game over last year’s 1.1 per game. His field goal percentage has declined from his standout freshman campaign from 58% to 50%, but that is because he is taking twice as many shots (roughly) and has had to sacrifice shot quality as a result. In games in which Roberson records a double double, the Buffaloes are 14-5.
Buffaloes Betting Trends:
Colorado is 16-14 ATS in their last 30 games and they are 11-6 ATS as an underdog. They are 10-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS in NCAA tournament games. They are also 5-2 ATS in neutral court games, while they have gone 194-206 ATS since 1997.
UNLV
Much like the days of Jerry Tarkanian, the Runnin’ Rebels are scoring again — in heaps. This season, UNLV ranked 24th in D-1 schools in scoring, putting up 76.7 points per game. Their ball movement is second (well, third) to none, with 17.7 assists per game, and Oscar Bellfield and Anthony Marshall combine for nearly 10 assists per game.
6’8″ transfer student Mike Moser is the team’s best player, averaging a double double this year after sitting out the mandatory transfer year. It’s easy to see why he changed schools. As a freshman for UCLA, Moser saw only 4 minutes a game. This year he’s over 30 and one of the best players in the Mountain West conference. The Rebels are only 6-4 in games in which Moser scores in single figures, and that of course accounts for half of their losses, so his play, as one would expect, is the ultimate key for UNLV.
Chase Stanback and Anthony Marshall combine to average 24.8 points per game, but Stanbeck, a 6’8″ senior forward, has struggled mightily of late. Over the last four Rebels games, he is averaging only 6 points per game and 4 rebounds per game. For UNLV to advance as college basketball oddsmakers have favored them to, Stanback is going to have to play a much more instrumental role.
Rebels Betting Trends:
UNLV is 13-18 ATS in their last 31 games and they are 11-15 ATS as a favorite. They are 1-5 ATS however, on 5 or 6 days of rest, and they are 3-5 ATS in games in which the total is between 130 and 139.5. Since 1997, the Rebels are 190-164 ATS and the total has gone UNDER in 49 of the last 89 Rebels games.
