Santa Clara Broncos AT Gonzaga Bulldogs
Opening Line: Gonzaga -14.5
Current Line: Gonzaga -13.5
Opening Total: 140.5
Current Total: 141
Opening Moneyline: Gonzaga -1300 / SC +850
Current Moneyline: Gonzaga -1500 / SC +900
Tonight’s game brings together two West Coast Conference rivals. Santa Clara enters tonight’s game with a 16-11 overall record and a 6-4 conference record (good for 4th in the conference). Gonzaga is 17-9 and they sport a 7-3 WCC record (good for 2nd in the conference). Gonzaga has won 4 of their last 5, with victories over San Diego, Portland, Loyola Marymount, and Pepperdine, and the loss was to Memphis. Santa Clara has won 6 of their last 8 games, with victories over San Diego (twice), Gonzaga, Portland, Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount, UCSC. Their last three losses have been two games dropped to Saint Mary’s and a loss to San Francisco.
Both teams sport positive point differentials. Gonzaga has won their games by an average of 9.8 points per game and their 76.0 points per game rank them 36th in the nation in scoring. They give up 66.3 a game. Santa Clara is averaging 72.7 points per game and giving up 69.5 points per game for a +3.1 differential. The combinative average of the teams’ offensive output is 148.7, 8.2 points higher than the opening total set by college basketball oddsmakers.
Some betting trends:
Santa Clara is 4-2 SU in their last 6 road games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 on the road. Santa Clara is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road against Gonzaga. Santa Clara is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Gonzaga. The total has gone OVER in 8 of Santa Clara’s last 10 games on the road against the Bulldogs.
Gonzaga is 4-1 SU in their last 5 gmaes and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Gonzaga’s last 6 games. Gonzaga is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 at home. Gonzaga is 22-2 SU in their last 24 games against Santa Clara and the total has gone OVER in 14 of their last 17 against Santa Clara. Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against the Broncos and the total has gone OVER In 8 of the lats 10 home games against Santa Clara.
Gonzaga is led by 6’5″ senior guard Steven Gray. Gray is the only player on the Bulldogs to average more than 30 minutes a game, and he leads the Bulldogs in scoring with 14.6 points per game, and also records 4 assists per game, 3.4 rebounds per game, and 1.7 steals per contest. He shoots a solid 37.9% from three (55 of 145) and is 42.5% from the floor. His scoring average is lower than perhaps it should be due to 4 terrible games he has had so far (Washington State, Lewis-Cl, Baylor, and Lafayette), in which he failed to reach double figures and averaged 4.8 points per game. He had a 35 point night in a 3 point loss to San Diego State. Gonzaga is 2-2 when he scores more than 20 points per game.
Gonzaga also has a talented 7 footer in Robert Sacre. Sacre is a junior and he is having his best season so far this year. He’s posting 12.9 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game, and 1.9 blocks per night. He’ll keep the paint closed up and stifle a lot of Santa Clara’s penetration by changing and blocking shots.
Santa Clara is led by 6’2″ sophomore point guard Kevin Foster. Foster averages 19.3 points per game, 3.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. He has scored in double figures in all but 2 Santa Clara games and he has scored more than 20 eleven times, of which Santa Clara has won 6 of the 11 games. He’s scored 25 and 21 in his last two games and is 15 of 34 from the floor in those two games. He shoots 36.6% from three (90 of 246) and 39.3% from the floor. His inefficiency is troubling and when he scores big it doesn’t always equate to Santa Clara victories. Marc Trasolini and Evan Roquemore contribute 22.6 points per game between themselves and other than them and Foster, no one on Santa Clara makes any significant contributions.
Tonight’s game isn’t predicted to be a close one by oddsmakers, but Santa Clara could keep it close if they get contributions from players other than Foster.
