Southern Utah at UC Davis
December 21st, 2010 at 10:00 PM EST
Opening Line: UC Davis -8.5
Current Line: UC Davis -8.5
Opening Total: 129
Current Total: 129
Opening Moneyline: UC Davis -450 / Southern Utah +350
Current Moneyline: UC Davis -446 / Southern Utah +379
Tonight’s game brings together the UC Davis Aggies (4-7), the conference leader of the Big West against the 3-8 Southern Utah Thunderbirds, who are 7th in the Summit League. College basketball oddsmakers have set the line in favor of the Aggies, who despite their losing record, have an even point differential; they score and give up 65.7. Southern Utah’s differential is -7.9 as they score 62.3 and give up 70.2. College basketball handicappers have set the total at 129, which is 2 points higher than the collective averages of the two teams.
UC Davis is 4-8 over their past 12 games, but has won 11 of their past 16 home games and Southern Utah is 1-5 on the road this year. Southern Utah is 0-3 ATS this year and UC Davis is 3-3 ATS this year. Neither team has any injuries of note, so they both come in full strength for this matchup.
UC Davis is led by the tandem of Joe Harden and Mark Payne, who account for 40% of the Aggies total points this year and are the only two players to average more than 30 minutes a game on the team. Harden, a 6’8″ senior guard, is averaging 14.8 points per game and is shooting 47.1% from the floor. He had a big 27 point game on December 1st against California, but the Aggies still lost by 12 points. He has scored in double figures in all but 2 of their games so far this year. He’s not a particularly strong shooter from deep, but with his size and strength, he is able to take other guards in the post and punish them down low. Mark Payne is also a big guard, 6’8″ 205, and he is the second leading scorer on the Aggies with 12.8 points per game. He scored 20 in the season opener against FAU and has played 25 or more minutes in every game so far this year. Like Harden, he’s not much of a threat from outside, and does most of his scoring in the paint against the smaller guards he faces.
If any team has a balanced attack, it is Southern Utah. They have a 8 player rotation in which every player averages 5 or more and no one averages more than 10. Their leading scorer Ray Jones, Jr. averages 10.8 points per game and plays a team high 34.2 minutes a night. No other Southern Utah player plays more than 25 minutes a game. Jones is a 6’2″ junior guard and he also leads the team in assists with 4.4 a game. He scored 22 in the season opening loss to California Baptist, but has not scored more than 16 in any other game. Calling him the focal point of the offense would be a true but somewhat misleading statement, as though the offense does run through him, many other Southern Utah players play significant roles in their point production.
Southern Utah will work to tire out the UC Davis starters as they have more depth to go to on their team. UC Davis has the more talented players, but sometimes depth wins out. UC Davis’ relative dominance at home is the reason college basketball oddsmakers have set the line in their favor.
