Illinois-northwestern
Time: 11 AM CST
Spread: NW -8
M/L: NW -330; ILL +265
Total: 52
Betting odds c/o Bovada
Northwestern has had something of a rough season, but it’s been better the last two weeks on the heels of an impressive win over then- No. 18 Notre Dame and last week against the Purdue Boilermakers. The Wildcats look to build on this momentum in hosting Illinois this week in a game college football odds are indicating the Wildcats to be 8-point favorites at home.
The Wildcats won 43-40 in OT against Notre Dame two weeks ago as the team hit a field goal late in regulation and another in OT to take the win. In a high scoring affair, the Wildcats managed to out-drive a tough Fighting Irish team 547 to 498 in total yardage, and Northwestern’s Trevor Siemian threw for 284 yards.
While Siemian did throw two picks, he was 30-of-48 in high volume work, and the Cats also got 149 yards from its No. 1 RB Justin Jackson. Jackson rushed for a TD, as did Siemian and Matt Alvltl.
Both Cameron Dickerson and Kyle Prater had strong games at WR, accounting for 178 yards between themselves. It was an impressive showing for a Wildcats team that has struggled offensively most of this season. Unfortunately, Siemian is out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL last week. It’s a blow to Northwestern, but this season has more or less run its course at any rate.
Northwestern averages just 22.1 points per game this season, and would be far worse if not for its strong defense which allows only 23.2 points per game. When at its best, the Wildcats are still a very good football team though, evidenced by its 2-1 mark against AP ranked opponents this season.
These same things can’t really be said for the 5-6 Fighting Illini. Illinois is just 2-5 in Big Ten play, but did score a big 16-14 win over Penn State last week. The Fighting Illini have a negative-9.3 point differential and have one of the weakest backfields in college football, barely getting 100 yards per game from its running backs.
Wes Lunt has done a great job at QB, however. Lunt has thrown for 1,729 yards at a 63.9 percent clip, with 14 TDs and just three picks; good for a passer rating of 143.5. His top WR Mike Dudek has amassed 902 yard on a 14.5 yard per attempt average, while scoring five of the Fighting Illini’s 21 receiving TDs.
Josh Ferguson has been decent in the backfield, but he hasn’t had a lot of help, nor has the OL created a wealth of great plays for him. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per game and had a 75-yard TD run, but it stands to reason he could average 5.5 yards per carry with a better line in front of him. Injuries to Cvijanovic, Angona and Karras have depleted the unit and left Illinois without adequate blocking.
