BYU-Cal
Time: 3:30 PM CST
Spread: CAL -3.5
M/L: CAL -175; BYU +155
Total: 73

Betting odds c/o Bovada

Cal has started to get things together after sputtering to a 4-4 record following a four game losings streak that culminated with a disappointing loss to Boise State on Oct 24. Since that point, the Bears have proceeded to beat three real top-tier teams in Middle Tennessee, UNLV and Savannah State.

While that may not speak to much of anything, Cal hosts BYU this week in its final regular season matchup in a game college football oddsmakers are favoring the Golden Bears by 3.5 points.

Last week, as a good measure of nothing, Cal blanked Savannah St. 64-0 in front of a TV audience of 0. Savannah State’s normally dominant offensive attack was only good for 63 yards against BYU, and BYU countered it with 487 yards and 27 first downs. Perhaps most perplexingly, SVU only converted 2-of-14 on third-down. But with so much that can be drawn from this contest, what can be made of this week’s matchup?

Basically, BYU’s season is a two-fold story. Prior to Taysom Hill’s injury, the Cougars were a team to be dealt with. Hill was throwing 66.7 percent for completion and helped the Cougars off to a 4-0 start. After senior Christian Stewart took over, things went sour. Stewart has thrown just 58 percent for completion and in his first start following Hill’s injury, he threw just 34.5 percent. It has changed the dynamics of the Cougars’ offense, mostly for the worse.

While the Cougars are still averaging 35.6 points per game all the offense has come in the last three weeks against nobody schools. Utah State, UCF, Nevada and Boise State all manhandled BYU and an 8-4 finish will be deceptive in light of the fact the team hasn’t competed with big boys since late September.

Cal hasn’t really been on fire either, though. The Bears have dropped five of its past six contests, with the lone win having come against Oregon State on Nov. 1. The last two weeks, Cal has been outscored 76-47 by USC and Stanford combined. It’s not that the Golden Bears don’t have an offense, because they surely do.

Cal averages 38.5 points per game, 13th best in the nation. It’s just that when the defense is as vomit inducing as the offense is riveting, it results in some mediocre (but high scoring) football. The Bears allow 39.5 points per game and have given up 45 points or more on four occasions (though the Bears won three of those contests).

Offensively, Cal gets it done via the pass. The Bears rank 5th in the nation in passing yardage (341.7 per game). Jared Goff is continuing his ascent as a top NCAA QB, after having posted a 3,508 yard freshman season last year. This season, Goff has thrown for 3,580 yards with a 61.8 percent completion ratio and a 7.96 yard per attempt average (up from 6.61 last year).

Goff has improved his TD/INT ratio considerably (31:6 vs. 18:10 last year), while also having cut down on his sacks (32 last year, just 24 thus far this season). Goff leads a high powered offense, but the Golden Bears are going to need to recruit some defensive standouts for it to matter much as Goff finishes his NCAA career over the next two seasons.