Xaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl – Cotton Bowl
Illinois-La Tech
Time: NOON CST
TV: ESPN
Spread: LAT -6
Total: 57
Betting odds courtesy of Bovada
Illinois expects to have its hands full with Louisiana Tech’s high powered offense in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Oddsmakers at Bovada have set the NCAA football spread at 6-points in favor of La Tech. The football lines also show the Total set at 57 as a reflection of the high powered offense of the Bulldogs.
Illinois was 1-5 in the Big Ten and 4-6 overall by mid-Nov. this season, but the Illini landed a bowl game, and this is the school’s first since 2011. A narrow 16-14 win over Penn State and a 47-33 victory over Northwestern were enough to give Illinois the bowl bid. Coach Tim Beckman said, “A month ago, you didn’t think you had a chance..it’s kind of a giggle now. When people doubt you, and you prove them wrong – it’s very rewarding.”
Rewards aside, the big payoff for Beckman and his crew would be a scoring a big victory to help propel the program forward heading towards next season. But La Tech finished 8-5 this season, a four game win improvement from a year ago. The Bulldogs were projected to finish fourth in its conference, but it won the Conference USA’s West division in 2014. This was done without five starters who were academically ineligible.
Kenneth Dixon is the force behind La Tech’s powerful offensive attack. He rushed for 26 TDs this season and 10 of those were in the last four contests. He ranked No. 3 in the country in TDs and Illinois does not have a good run defense to contain him. The Illini allowed 249.6 yards per game to rushers and that was at the very bottom of the barrel for NCAA Division-IA schools.
Illinois’ defensive problems go beyond the rush of course. The team allowed 33.9 points per game and 464.3 yards to opponents this season. The Illini have the worst point differential, negative-9, of all bowl game teams. It becomes easy to understand, then, how this game favors La Tech by a touchdown.
The Bulldogs are a tough team for opposing pass offenses, as the team tied for the most INTs in the country with 25. Adarius Barnes and Xavier Woods each had five. The Bulldogs’ last bowl game was a 31-24 loss to TCU in 2011. The Bulldogs have not scored a victory since 2011 when it beat UCLA and in 2010 it defeated Baylor. Both seasons La Tech was 6-6 at the time of matchup, so the 8-5 record at this point bodes well for its chances.
Louisiana Tech las lost two of its past three games, but prior to the loss to Old Dominion on Nov 22, it was riding a five game win streak that included victories over UTEP, UTSA, Southern Miss, Western Kentucky and UAB.
The Old Dominion game was followed by an absurd 76-31 victory over Rice. In that contest, the Bulldogs racked up 677 total yards, 408 of which were passing.
La Tech also converted 9-of-14 on third down. QB Cody Sokol threw 20-of-32 for 387 yards and a 12.1 yard per attempt average. He did throw one pick, but his four TDs more than made up for it in the lopsided victory. Dixon also rushed for 137 yards on 17 carries (8.1 yards per attempt), while managing three TDs of his own. Jarred Craft contributed the other rushing TD and had 88 yards on only seven carries.
TRENDS:
ILL: The under is 4-0 in Illinois’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in previous game; The Under is 4-0 in Illinois’ last 4 games after scoring 40 points or more in previous game; Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 neutral site games.
LAT: The Under is 4-0 in the Bulldogs’ last 4 neutral site games; The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 games following an SU loss; The Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs’ last 4 games after accumulating 275 total yards or more in previous game.
