Purdue-Illinois
Time: 9 AM ET
Spread: ILL -8.5
Total: 54.5
Betting Odds courtesy of Bookmaker
The Illinois Fighting Illini have opened the season 3-2, but are 0-1 in the Big Ten. According to college football oddsmakers, that should change this week as the Illini enter this week’s matchup against Purdue as 8.5-point favorites.
The Illini have been very good in the air, generating 309.4 yards per game via the pass. On the run, the team struggles, with just 102.2 yards per game (ranking 116th in the nation). The Illini are -6.0 in point differential, and that’s due to the fact that both its losses have been blowouts, a 44-19 drubbing by Washington and a 45-14 pounding from then-No. 21 Nebraska last week.
Wes Lunt has done well at QB, throwing for 65.8 percent completion on 1,237 yards. He’s good for 8.14 yards per play, and has thrown 11 TDs to just 3 INTs, for a QB rating of 154.1.
Josh Ferguson has been the best and most reliable option in the backfield. He’s rushed for 337 yards and a 6.2 average yard per carry. Ferguson has four TDs on the year, including a 75-yard TD run.
Both Geronimo Allison and Mike Dudek have been great at receiver. Allison has caught for 418 yards with a 19.9 yards per reception average. Dudek is right behind him, but leads the team in total receptions (25). Allison and Dudek have each scored three TDs a piece.
Purdue has just been a mess offensively. The team ranks near the bottom of both passing yardage (177.8) and rushing yardage (134.2). The Boilermakers have generated just 23.8 points per game. Danny Etling has struggled at QB, throwing just 54.9 percent of his passes for completion and has 5 INTs to his 6 TDs. He’s averaging under five yards per reception, too.
In the backfield, Akeem Hunt and Rasheem Mostert have been reasonably effective, especially Hunt. He averages six yards per carry and has one TD on the season. Mostert also has a TD on the year.
Betting Trends:
PUR: 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 after accumulating less than 170 yards passing previous game; 3-0-1 ATS last 4 after SU loss; 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 on turf.
ILL: 0-6 ATS in last 6 in OCT; Over 5-1 in last 6 after scoring less than 20 points previous week; UNDER 4-1 in last 5 OCT games.
Head-to-head: Home team 4-0 ATS in last 4 meetings; Underdog 5-1 ATS in last 6 meetings; UNDER 4-1 in last 5 meetings.
