Here’s the way it looks as the ACC’s UNC Tar Heels take on the Big Ten’s Michigan State—the Spartans have to stop the Heels. Is that possible? UNC has been consistently the best team in the country. As the odds play out, the Tar Heels are favored by 7.5 points. The best money line you can get on UNC is -360. The best you can get on the Spartans is +310.

If you’re into arbitrage betting, then you’re out of luck on this one. You’ve got to go with either Michigan State University or North Carolina. So which team are you going to choose? And should you take the money line or the point spread? Or does a combination of some sort of wager make sense? 

MSU and UNC met earlier this season on December 3 and the Tar Heels won by 35 points. Will this happen again? No, I severely doubt it. Here’s a little backstory. The Spartans are in their second NCAA Championship game under the helmsmanship of coach Tom Izzo. In the Final Four the other day, Michigan State managed to defeat the UConn Huskies 82-73 to get to the final round. On the other end of the court, North Carolina beat Villanova 83-69 to prove their dominance.

Spartan Defense

The Michigan defense versus UNC offense is the major match-up in this game. It will be tough for Michigan to beat the Tar Heels in shooting from the field, charity stripe or three-point arc. So they will have to do it defensively. Is that even possible? I don’t think so.

MSU Home Court

The final game occurs at Ford Field, which is 90 miles from the Michigan State campus. There will be 72,000 (give or take) fans in the venue and most will be rooting for MSU. That will certainly help the Spartans. (Thanks to Bet on Red for pointing out my gaff. I had UNC with the home court advantage!)

A Championship Team

The UNC Tar Heels stayed together just for this moment. Many of the players could have been NBA bound after last season, but the team stayed together with one purpose in mind—to capture a national title. Prior to the start of the season just about everyone picked them to be the champs.

The lineup includes Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. All of these guys were involved in last year’s Final Four loss to Kansas. You think they’ve been carrying that with them all year? Lawson is a force on the court, leading the team in points with 20.8 and assists with 7.0 per game. Hansbrough is another dominating players, besting the club in rebounds with 8.0 and steals with 2.8 per game. Green averages 1.6 blocks per game. Ellington hits 40.8% of his threes, 77.3% of his frees and 48.0% of his shots from the field.

The Spartans as a Team

That formidable UNC team did vanquish the Spartans last December. But back then, MSU was playing its fourth game in seven days and two prime players were dealing with injuries as Goran Suton was out and Delvon Roe played hurt. But could the Spartans have won that game anyway? Probably not. At least according to Izzo, they couldn’t.

Coach Izzo says that if both teams play well on Monday, his team loses. That’s it. And he’s right. UNC has to be forced into making mistakes and they must simply not be on their game for MSU to have a chance.

The team includes Kalin Lucas, who was the Big Ten player of the year, Travis Walton, the Big Ten “D” player of the year and Goran Suton, a dominant center. Lucas is the top point scorer with 14.4 per game and the best at assists with 5.4 per contest. Walton is a tough senior guard who causes opponents to make mistakes. Suton led the club in rebounds (10.6 per game), steals (2.2 per game) and blocks (1.2 per game). If he can put in a big night that will certainly help.

The wild card in all of this is forward Raymor Morgan. He’s shown a lot of improvement over the course of the season. Versus UConn, he notched 18 points and nine rebbies. The forward has really come to the forefront in the tournament.

Down and Dirty

The Tar Heels look to be the sensible pick. I mean a 7.5 point spread seems like nothing. Especially considering the regular season debacle they induced on the Spartans. Then again, you never know. An injury to an important UNC player could turn the game around. A cold string of shooting could make a big difference. All in all, the money line and point spread both look sound for the Heels. Then again—it is March Madness.

The game airs tonight at 9:21 on CBS. See you there!