Tip Off: 11 PM EST, Friday, Nov 16, 2012
Spread: ORE -6.5
M/L: ORE -275, VAN +235
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
VANDY
Vanderbilt began last season with very high expectations, being billed a top-10 team in the preseason. They lost all five starters from last year’s squad, though, and now they have a roster filled with inexperienced players. This year, it will be difficult to get 10 SEC wins as they did a year ago.
It is not a good sign when the top returning scorer averaged 2.3 points per game in SEC play. That would be Kendren Johnson, who had a season highlight three point play to give Vandy its upset win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament title game. He’s going to have to be the premier player on the perimeter for the Commodores this season. At 6’4″, he has a lot of size for a point guard, but will need to improve his three point shot and work on his defense a lot.
In the backcourt, Johnson is joined by Dai-Jon Parker. Parker is a great defender and will see time both backing up Johnson and playing alongside him in a two-point guard set. Fuller saw 14.7 minutes per game last year in his freshman campaign and is in for a significant spike in playing time this year. The Commodores will also look to work in freshman Kevin Bright and Sheldon Jeter. Bright will likely start at small forward this season and Jeter could become a good hybrid forward, if he can adapt to playing the 4-spot.
The front court may be the biggest woe for the Commodores, as their top threat is Josh Henderson, who has scored all of 21 points in his two seasons at Vandy. He sat out the 10-11 season as a redshirt and missed most of last season with a fractured left foot. Johnson has the potential to be very good, but we’ve seen almost no flashes even. Coach Kevin Stallings says he is a skilled offensive player, but we’re going to have to see some of that in game play.
Rod Odom joins Henderson in the front court, but lacks strength and weighs only 215 pounds. He’s jacked up three times as many threes as free throws, which isn’t a good sign for a power forward. He could lead the team in scoring, but if he’s not doing anything on the interior, it won’t help the Commodores be much more than a mediocre team in the SEC.
OREGON
The Oregon Ducks are rebuilding. They have six freshman, and coach Dana Altman knows it is going to take time to adjust. He said “It’s just going to take some time,” so Ducks fans will have to be patient, because this team is a year or two away from being a threat. They got into the NIT last season and made it to the quarterfinals, where they lost 90-86 to Washington. Losing Olu Ashaolu, Devoe Joseph and Garrett Sim will be a big blow though, as the trio averaged 38.1 points per game last season.
They have only five returning players, and only one of which averaged double figures last season. The 6’6″ E.J. Singler, a senior forward from nearby Medford, put up 13.6 points per game last year in just under 31 minutes per night. Singler is the younger brother of Detroit Piston Kyle Singler, and is one of the better front court players in the PAC-12. “He’s done an outstanding job for us the last two years, but we’re going to ask him to do even more this year,” Altman commented. Singler hustles and is willing to sacrifice his body, so he should set a good example for the young players on this Oregon squad.
But don’t expect any of it to translate to immediate success. Athlon Magazine predicts a 9th place finish in the PAC-12, as the team will likely not win anywhere near the 13 games they won in conference play a year ago. Still, the Ducks do have some talent and Singler will have a great senior season. As to whether it translates to being drafted in the NBA like his brother, that is both dubious and unpredictable.
Vanderbilt Betting Trends:
Commodores are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 on Friday, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs teams with winning pcts above .600, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs teams with winning SU records, 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 on the road, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs teams with winning home records.
Oregon Betting Trends:
Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after an ATS loss, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs teams with winning SU records, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following an SU win, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 overall, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on Friday, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
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