Louisville Cardinals at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:00 PM EST
Point Spread:  Louisville -9
Total:  n/a
Moneyline:  Louisville -475 / Western Ky +395

Louisville is on the brink of being nationally ranked, reciving 124 votes, but are not yet ranked, despite their outstanding 9-1 record.  The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, however, are no pushover and are currently one game below .500 at 5-6.  Their point differential reflects this at -1.1, as they score 68.3 a game and give up 69.4.  Louisville, meanwhile, has been blowing out opponents in decisive fashion, averaging a 20.8 win margin, scoring a 37th best in the nation 78.4 points per game and giving up only 57.9.  Last time these teams met, Western Kentucky struggled defensively and gave up 102 points to Louisville, while managing only 75 themselves.  They will need to apply more defensive pressure tonight to have any chance at covering the spread.

Louisville is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 road games and they have lost 6 of their last 9 on the road, which may be why college basketball oddsmakers have set this game relatively close.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville’s last 6 road games, but there is no total set for tonight’s game.  Western Kentucky has won 7 of their last 9 home games, and like many mediocre teams, they are horrible on the road but very good at home.

Western Kentucky last time out lost to Murray State by 9 points, but before that had won two in a row, against Southern Illinois and Bowling Green.

Louisville last blew out Gardner-Webb by 29 points, but the game before that suffered a perplexing 6 point loss to Drexel, which is probably what is keeping them from being nationally ranked.

Louisville has a very balanced attack, with six players averaging 8 or more points per game, and their leading scorer Preston Knowles averages but 13.6 a game.  Preston Knowles, a 6’1″ senior point guard, is a gunner.  He has already attempted 66 threes (6.6 per game) and is shooting 37.9% from behind the arc.  Louisville as a team has attempted 259 threes out of their 608 field goal attempts, so to say they rely on the three point shot would be a vast understatement.  As a team they are shooting 32.4% from three; respectable, but not outstanding.  Western Kentucky will have to body up shooters and close out on them to prevent Louisville from getting going behind the arc.

Western Kentucky is led by the trio of Juan Pattillo, Steffphon Pettigrew, and Sergio Kerusch, who account for 57% of their total output.  6’6″ senior forward Pattillo leads the way, scoring 13.8 a game, while also hauling in a team leading 10 boards a game.  He plays much bigger than his frame, and is able to bang with the biggest of them.  Against South Carolina on November 27th, he had 18 boards and has recorded 6 double doubles so far this year.  He only played 21 minutes against Murray State last game, which is probably part of the reason Western Kentucky lost the game.  Western Kentucky isn’t a particuarly good shooting team.  Their team field goal percentage is an atrocious 41%, so it will have to be their defense if anything that keeps them in this game.