Alabama Crimson Tide AT LSU Tigers
Feb 17, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line: Alabama -10
Current Line: Alabama -9
Opening Total: 120
Current Total: 120.5
Moneyline: Alabama -500 / LSU +350
LSU enters tonight’s game with a losing record of 10-15 and they are 2-8 in the SEC, whch renders them in 5th place. Alabama is 16-8, 8-2 in the SEC – West, good for 1st in the SEC – West.
Alabama has a +10.1 point differential. They play very stingy defense, giving up only 58.4 points per game, which makes their rather average 68.5 points per game scoring look more impressive since points are so hard to come by against the Alabama defense. LSU sports a -2.4 point differential, as one would expect from a team with a 10-15 record, and they give up 65.1 while managing to score only 62.7 themselves. LSU has lost their last 8 games.
The combinative total of the teams’ offensive output is 131.2, making an ‘over’ bet a logical proposition.
Some betting trends:
Alabama is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games on the road and 4-13 SU in their last 17 road games. The total has gone OVER in 10 of Alabama’s last 13 games on the road and they are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road against LSU. Alabama is 2-6 SU in their last 8 road games against LSU and the total has gone UNDER In 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games when playing on the road at LSU.
LSU is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games and 0-5 SU in their last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LSU’s last 11 games and they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home. LSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Alabama and 1-4 SU in their last 5 against the Crimson Tide. The total has gone UNDER in all 5 of LSU’s last 5 games against the Crimson Tide and LSU is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home against Alabama. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LSU’s last 6 games at home against Alabama.
LSU is led by the backcourt tandem of Ralston Turner and Ander Stringer, who both average 12.2 points a piece and account for 38.7% of LSU’s total scoring output. Stringer, a diminutive 5’9″ 170, is a freshman from Jackson, Mississippi and he has impressed. In addition to his 12.2 points per game he also dishes out 3 assists per game and averages 1.1 steals, as well. Turner is a 6’6″ freshman shooting guard who is having a fair season. He’s shooting 33.1% from down town (39 of 118) and has averaged 13 points per game over the last two games. Prior to these last two games, however, he combined for 13 points in the previous three games. He is averaging 7.8 points per game in the 5 games of the 8 game losing streak that he has appeared in. For the Tigers to have much of a shot, their backcourt is going to have to step it up or they will drop their 9th straight tonight to Alabama.
Alabama is led by the trio of JaMychal Green, Tony Mitchell, and Trevor Releford, who together combine for 41.9 points, 60% of Alabama’s offensive output. Green, a 6’8″ junior forward, is leading the team in scoring with 16 points per game and he also leads the Tide in rebounds per game with 7.5 a night. In the six games he has recorded a double double in, the Crimson Tide have won four, and he has scored in double figures in all but 1 game (a 5 point loss to Seton Hall). Mitchell, a 6’6″ sophomore forward, is also putting up big numbers with 15.8 points per game and 7.3 boards per game and he has scored in double figures in all but 1 game as well (a blowout win over Southeast Louisiana). Over the last 4 games he has averaged 22.3 points per game and Alabama has won 3 of those games, and 6 of their last 7. If Green and Mitchell play to the best of their abilities, college basketball oddsmakers should be about on for the 10 point spread.
