Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Time: 8:35 PM EST
TV: NBA League Pass
Spread: DAL -2
Total: 211
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Houston Rockets are currently situated No. 3 in the Western Conference and are looking to welcome Dwight Howard back into the lineup. Such will serve a great purpose in tuning up for the playoffs, but this game is of equal importance to the No. 7 seeded Dallas Mavericks.
Dallas is in good position to hang on to a playoff berth, but catching the No. 6 San Antonio Spurs may be asking a bit much, trailing by three full games in the standings. The Rockets are 2-point underdogs in NBA live odds at Bovada, and the total is set at 211. For an understanding of how to bet these, see our NBA odds explained.
Howard is expected to play, as noted. However, as he returns to the fold, his replacement during his time of injury, Donatas Motiejunas, may be out of the season. That is no small blow to the Rockets, a team that is relatively thin with frontcourt backups. In addition to Motiejunas’ absence, Patrick Beverley is out for the season and Kostas Papanikolaou is also out for this game.
The battered Rockets will struggle with these subtractions, but James Harden has been more than enough to keep the team competitive and is very much in the MVP conversation, for whatever that even matters. In all, the Rockets still hope to prove that it is not a regular season team, postseason failure. And in the Western Conference, that is far easier said than done, of course.
Harden is leading the Rockets and league in minutes per game (36.9), while posting gaudy stats: 27.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and seven assists per game, good for a 27.0 PER. With his play so far above the baseline for a 2-guard, it has allowed the Rockets to survive without Beverley in the fold. To be sure, Harden is a ball-dominant guard, and the major loss of Bev is mostly felt on the defensive end of the court. The Rockets have the ponies to get by though: Jason Terry is playoff tested, a veteran. And beyond that, just keep the ball with the Beard.
Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer, and Josh Smith are all assets for the Rockets trying to get out in transition, and between the trio the Rockets receive 46 points per game, which still isn’t even half of the team’s 103 points per. The Rockets have hit the offensive glass well (11.9 per game), and will look to exploit the Dallas Mavericks there, though Dallas can certainly hold its own on the glass. Even with the decline of Dirk Nowitzki on the glass, Dallas relies heavily on 5-man Tyson Chandler to play his role in toughness, rebounding and defense.
The Mavs have not been pleased with the acquisition of Rajon Rondo, though, and it’s unclear whether he will be around past this offseason when he becomes a free agent. Mark Cuban and brass took a gamble on Rondo, and so far it is one that has not paid off. Monta Ellis is playing too well to alter his role on the team, and the result has been Rondo falling out of the offense, shooting (even more) poorly, and failing to look like even a shadow of the guard that once led the Association in assists per game.
Compounding this is the fact that free agent acquisition Chandler Parsons has failed to develop in any meaningful way. While the Rockets could ostensibly be bitter over the loss of the former Florida Gator, it’s hard to take that mindset given that Ariza is performing just as well at about half of the price. Parsons has posted a very average line in accordance with his very average PER (16.5): 15.8 points, five rebound and 2.4 assists per game. The Mavs were hoping the swingman would make the leap to be a 20-plus point per game scorer, but it really has been Ellis who has continued to carry this team. For all the pundits who maintain he is a low efficiency 2-guard, someone has to score.
Amar’e Stoudemire has been a valuable addition to the Mavs bench, as well. He’s only seeing 16 minutes per game, but is posting 10 points per game in those limited minutes and doing so very efficiently. The Mavs are going to heavily rely on his bench production in the postseason, a team lacking scoring punch off the bench.
Jameer Nelson helps in that role, as well, and the long-time Orlando Magic floor general has been a good, if inconsistent, source of bench scoring. In the 120-114 loss to Portland on Mar 28, Nelson put up 22 points on 9 of 18 shooting, including hitting four threes and dishing out five assists, proving he still has a lot of value in the right role. His days of starting may be over, much like Amar’e’s, but the role both serve in strengthening the bench really can’t be underestimated.
