San Antonio at Phoenix
Time: 9 PM ET, Dec 18, 2013
Spread: SAS -3.5
Total: 202
Odds Courtesy of Bovada
San Antonio lost 115-92 to the L.A. Clippers on Monday night, but Gregg Popovich’s 19-5 Spurs will look to rebound against a somewhat surprisingly good Phoenix Suns team which is 14-9 on the young season. The Spurs are 3.5 point favorites according to NBA oddsmakers at Bovada, and the game is expected to be a high scoring affair with the point total set at 202.
San Antonio is the league’s 9th highest scoring team, averaging 102.9 points per game. But the Spurs are very efficient; they lead the league in assists per game with 25.1 and surrender just 94.1 points per game to opponents. Despite being an aging cast of stars, the Spurs are the reigning Western Conference champs and nearly derailed LeBron James and the Heat in the Finals last season. The team executes better than any other in the league and surrenders just the shots they want their opponents to take, a mark of a Pop-coached team.
Popovich is able to cruise through regular seasons while his starters log plenty of minutes of rest. Tony Parker’s 30.2 minutes per game lead the team, and the Spurs utilize a ten man rotation to keep legs fresh. Tim Duncan is still posting a PER of 20.8 and averaging 14 & 9. Manu Ginobili is logging productive minutes off the bench but can be lethal in late game situations.
Phoenix has mostly been about the surprise greatness of a backcourt of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Many NBA execs realized Bledsoe was a sleeping giant behind starter Chris Paul in LA last season, but the former Kentucky Wildcat has been even better than most anticipated he would be in his first season as a full-time starter.
The man dubbed “Mini LeBron” is averaging 19.5 points per game, 6.4 assists and 4.3 rebounds. Dragic is posting 19.1 points and 6.1 assists, and the Suns have had great contributions from Gerald Green, Markieff Morris, Channing Frye, Marcus Morris, Miles Plumlee and P.J. Tucker—all six of whom average nine points or greater per game.
The Suns have surprising depth and while the team isn’t really anywhere near the level of a contender, it could serve as a pesky first round draw for another team in the West. The Suns have little to lose and it is a team that is searching for an identity. Bledsoe is the established star, but the Suns will look to add a major star in the draft and a top shelf free agent this summer.
San Antonio Trends: 0-4 ATS in last 4 vs teams with home winning percentages greater than .600; 0-5 ATS in last 5 vs teams with a winning SU record; OVER 4-0 in last 4 following SU loss of more than 10 points.
Phoenix Trends: 4-0 ATS in last 4 following SU win; 4-0 ATS in last 4 following ATS win; 5-0 ATS in last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more the previous game.
Head-to-head: Spurs 4-1 ATS in last 5 in PHX; OVER 8-2 in last 10 in PHX; Spurs 5-2-1 ATS in last 8 meetings.
