2011 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs #4 Oklahoma City Thunder
Best of Seven Series Format, 2-2-1-1-1
Tuesday, May 17- Sunday, May 29, 2011
Series Odds: DAL -245 / OKC +205 (courtesy of bookmaker)
Game #1 Opening Line: Mavericks -5
Game #1 Current Line: Mavericks -6
Game #1 Opening Total: 192
Game #1 Current Total: 193
Game #1 Money Line: Mavericks -260 / Thunder +220
Series Schedule:
Game 1 – Tue May 17, Oklahoma City at Dallas 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 2 – Thu May 19, Oklahoma City at Dallas 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 3 – Sat May 21, Dallas at Oklahoma City 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 4 – Mon May 23, Dallas at Oklahoma City 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 5 * Wed May 25, Oklahoma City at Dallas 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 6 * Fri May 27, Dallas at Oklahoma City 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 7 * Sun May 29, Oklahoma City at Dallas 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
After a 9 day layoff, Dallas finally gets to play a game. The Mavericks swept the defending champion Lakers, including a 36 point beatdown in game 4 on Mother’s Day, the last time the Mavericks played. By contrast, Oklahoma City was stretched to 7 games by the upstart Memphis Grizzlies. The Thunder only have one day’s rest but they are a young team and don’t need as much rest as the older veteran Mavericks. At an average age of 25, the Thunder are the youngest team to make the conference finals since the 1986 Rockets. Besides the Thunder’s youth, there isn’t much travel involved in this series as the two cities are are just over 200 miles apart or roughly a 45 minute flight.
This is an unlikely conference finals match-up as many thought the Thunder were a year away from really being one of the elite teams in the league. Many also thought the Mavericks were a year or two past their prime and missed their window to compete for a title. Despite their proximity the two teams are in different divisions and only played 3 times this season. They haven’t played since January 6 though. Dallas won 2 of the 3 meetings. Dallas won November 24 in OKC 111-103. The Mavericks also won December 27 in Oklahoma City 103-93. In that game Dirk Nowitzki left the game in the second quarter with a knee injury. Nowitzki also missed the January 6 meeting in Dallas, a game the Thunder won 99-95. Dallas is 6-4 straight up against Oklahoma City in the last 3 seasons, but the Thunder are 7-3 ATS in those games.
The Mavericks are 54-36 ATS in all games this season, including an impressive 10-0 in the playoffs this season. The Mavs are 35-26 as a favorite this season. Dallas is also 18-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more in the previous game, 28-10 ATS after 3 0r more consecutive wins, and 34-16 ATS versus teams with winning records this season. Dallas is 36-50 ATS at home the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma City is 100-79 ATS in all games the last two seasons including 52-37 on the road and 58-42 versus teams with winning records. The Thunder are 77-54 ATS as underdogs the last 3 seasons.
Oklahoma City power forward Serge Ibaka injured his ankle in Sunday’s game 7 against Memphis. He is listed as probable for Tuesday’s game 1. He is tasked with guarding Dirk Nowitzki, so obviously you want to keep an eye on his situation. Oklahoma City is outscoring opponents 103-99 in the playoffs. They lead all playoff teams in scoring, and are holding opponents to 41% shooting from the field which also leads all playoff teams.The Thunder are out rebounding opponents 46.6-41.3 and have a rebounding margin of +5.3.
The biggest problem for the Thunder has been the ongoing Alpha dog battle between all-stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. In the series against Memphis, Westbrook averaged 20 shots a game to Durant’s 19. The OKC offense works much better when Durant gets most of the shots. Take game 7 for example. Durant had 39 points on 13 for 25 shooting along with 9 rebounds and 3 blocks. Westbrook had a triple double with 14 points on 4 for 12 shooting, 14 assists and 10 rebounds. The Thunder won 105-90. There were possessions where Westbrook was the only one to touch the ball and he didn’t even look at Durant. That can’t happen against the Mavericks. For the playoffs, Durant is averaging 28.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Westbrook is averaging 23.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.3 steals a game. Guard James Harden is averaging 12.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists off the bench for the Thunder. Ibaka is averaging 9.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks a game in the playoffs.
Dallas has been without starting forward Caron Butler since early January and he is out for the season with a knee injury, along with guard Dominque Jones who is out with a foot injury. Dallas is outscoring opponents 97-88 in the playoffs. Dallas is outrebounding playoff opponents 39.6 to 39. Dallas is shooting 47% from the field and holding opponents to 44% shooting. The Mavericks are shooting 42% from 3-point range in the playoffs.
The mavericks don’t have a controversy over who should take the most shots. Future Hall-of-Famer Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 26.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists a game during the playoffs. Shooting guard Jason Terry is averaging 18.3 points, 2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.1 steals a game in the playoffs off the bench for the Mavericks. Small forward Peja Stojakovic is averaging 10.7 points a game also off the bench. Point guard Jason Kidd is averaging 10.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. Small forward Shawn Marion is averaging 9.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2 assists a game. Back up point guard J.J. Barea is only 6 foot tall but is so quick few people can guard him. He frustrated the Lakers so much that Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum both were ejected for elbowing him in the face at different points in the 4 game series.
Both Dallas and Oklahoma City run the pick and roll effectively so whichever team can defend it better will probably win the series. Three point shooting will also be an issue. Dallas is shooting lights out from 3-point range. In the closeout game against the Lakers, the Mavericks made 20 out of 32 3 point attempts in the rout. Though Dallas is the much more rested team, don’t be surprised if the Mavs are rusty after such a long layoff. I think the Thunder have a good shot of pulling off the upset in game one. However, Dallas will outlast them in the series.
SERIES PREDICTION: Mavericks in Six Games
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