Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
Time: 6:30 PM CT (NBA TV)
Spread: MIA -2.5
Total: 192.5
Betting odds c/o 5dimes
If the playoffs began today, these two teams would square off against one another, but it is still very early for those conjectures in a tightly packed Eastern Conference.
The Miami Heat sit at 20-13 and host the 19-14 Indiana Pacers in a game which will air at 6:30 Central on NBA TV. The Heat are 2.5 point favorites in what should be a closely contested contest between two playoff-caliber teams.
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The Heat have won two straight with victories over the Dallas Mavericks and Washington Wizards. Miami won by an average of 23 points over that pair of games, most recently knocking off the Wizards 97-75. The Heat are a dangerous team mostly because it has one of the league’s best defenses and a brand of basketball befitting of the postseason.
It remains to be seen what Miami will do this offseason, though. The Heat’s starting center Hassan Whiteside currently makes less than $1 million per season, but he has been dominant and is sure to command a max contract. Miami may well give it to him, as his 4.0 blocks per game are a key component in Miami’s heralded defensive attack. Whiteside is also averaging a double-double with 12.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game while shooting 61.4 percent from the field.
Adding to Whiteside’s brilliance in the paint has been a host of good individual defenders, not the least of which is rookie Justise Winslow. Winslow fell to No. 10 in the 2015 draft, but many were unafraid to proclaim him the best swingman in the class. His offensive numbers are a paltry five points and four rebounds per game, but his one-on-one defense has been top-notch. Winslow has a ways to go offensively, but by the time the Heat are done with Luol Deng he should be ready to thrive.
Miami is also now getting better play from Goran Dragic, who commanded a max contract over the summer. Over his past five games, Dragic is averaging 16 points and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 56.5 percent from the field and 47.1 percent from three. It is a huge improvement on what was roughly 41 percent and 27 percent, respectively, prior to him rediscovering his mojo.
Adding Dragic to the Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh tandem gives the Heat enough offense, but Erik Spoelstra has preferred to keep the Heat in a very half-court oriented offense. And by and large, it has worked, maximizing the talents of a deep team that could pose a threat even to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs.
The Pacers stopped a two-game losing streak by defeating the Detroit Pistons 94-82 last night, and this game will be the second of their back-to-back. Paul George and the Pacers are a three-point hoisting machine, and that style of basketball has worked well for a lot of teams in this era. The Pacers average 9.1 threes made per game, while shooting an impressive 37 percent as a team.
Instrumental in that style has been the play of forward Paul George. He made a switch from the 3 to the 4 spot this season, and it has benefited him immensely as he is having his best career season. George is averaging 24.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, four assists and 1.91 steals/blocks per game. The Pacers average 9.27 steals per game as a team, helping them get out into transition (where they still often launch the triple).
Indiana may be a little fatigued this game, but that is not certain since the win over the Pistons was relatively easy. Even so, the latter half of back to backs are always tough for NBA teams and this could be a “schedule loss” for the Pacers. NBA oddsmakers agree. The Heat are a tough enough defensive team that if Indiana fails to work the ball and stay crisp, the Heat could turn on the defensive jets and get an easy victory against a team very comparable in talent-level.
Pacers point guard George Hill is questionable after suffering food poisoning. If he is unable to go, expect George to play even a point-forward role, while Rodney Stuckey will get the start at the 1.
