Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Time: 6 PM CT (NBA LP)
Spread: OKC -16
Total: 205.5

Betting odds c/o Pincle

The Oklahoma City Thunder may have lost to the Chicago Bulls on Christmas day, but OKC has still won eight of its past 10 and holds a seven-game lead on Utah in the Northwest Division standings.

The Thunder will host a struggling Denver Nuggets squad in a game NBA oddsmakers are favoring the Thunder by a whopping 16 points.  The game will air at 6 PM Central on NBA League Pass.

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The loss to Chicago on Friday afternoon was largely a product of a fourth quarter collapse on the part of the Thunder, as the game was tied going into the fourth. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook did not disappoint, but as good as the tandem is, they are still not receiving a lot of help from their teammates.

Durant had 29 and Westbrook dropped 26, but outside of them the Thunder hit just 17 of 52 from the field, with only backup center Enes Kanter really having anything resembling a good game. The Thunders No. 4 and No. 5 scorers both come off the bench, in Kanter and swingman Dion Waiters. Getting more offensive production out of Serge Ibaka is imperative, but really this is an OKC team that can be defeated if opposing teams’ second units capitalize on OKC’s lack of scoring off the bench.

Ibaka has really failed to develop as an offensive threat, and his main value still lies in his rim protection and 2.3 blocks per game. Over the Thunder’s last five games Ibaka has been better though. He is averaging 15 points and 7.6 rebounds over the span while hitting 50 percent of his shots. Last game’s 3 of 12 represented an anomaly for he had hit 50 percent or greater in three of four contests going in.

The Nuggets have dropped four of its last five contests, and the loss at the hands of the Spurs marked Denver’s 26th straight loss at San Antonio (the Spurs have not lost at home this season).

Denver has been without its No. 7 overall pick Emmanuel Mudiay who is nursing an ankle injury and is said to be out at least until the Jan. 2 matchup against the Golden State Warriors. Mudiay has struggled badly with his shooting, but his playmaking ability and defense were helping the Nuggets be a more competitive team than most expected. With the aged Jameer Nelson starting in his place, the Nuggets are hardly the same team.

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The biggest reason Denver had surprised early this season, though, was the resurgence of Italian forward Danilo Gallinari. “Gallo” came as the main chip in the deal that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York, and he is indisputably Denver’s finest offensive talent. He is averaging 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game while shooting 38.9 percent from the field and 37 percent from three-point range. Gallo is attempting 12.4 field goals per game, second to only Will Barton.

Gallinari is expected to miss this game, which really puts a thorn in the side of the Nuggets. Presumably it is also why NBA oddsmakers set the line so heavily in favor of the Thunder, as well.

Barton for his part has been extremely efficient and capable of great offensive outbursts. He is averaging 15.7 points and six boards per game while posting a team-high PER of 19.9. Over his last five games, he has been sensational, shooting 46.6 percent from the floor on 17.6 field goal attempts per game to average 21.2 points over that span.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, only one of those contests resulted in a win, and getting anywhere against OKC tonight will prove difficult. The Thunder may lack offensive firepower outside of Durant and Westbrook, but Billy Donovan has the Thunder paying superb team defense and the 6’6” Barton could be frustrated by Durant’s long frame and active hands.

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