Golden State AT Miami
January 1st, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Miami -12
Current Line: Miami -12
Opening Total: 205
Current Total: 204
Opening Moneyline: Miami -1000 / Golden State +700
Current Moneyline: Miami -1000 / Golden State +700
Miami has continued their red hot play. They went 15-1 in December and have won 16 of their past 17, to climb from mediocre to nearly leading the Eastern Conference.
“Overall, where we’re at now is what I envisioned,” said James, “Did I envision our tough times early on? Not to that extent. But it made us who were are today, going into 2011.”
11 of the Heat’s 15 victories were double digit wins, so they’re not just beating opponents – they’re pulverizing them. Tonight the Heat will go for their sixth straight win at home against a Golden State team that struggles on the road, having won just 5 of 18 away from Oracle Arena.
“On the road, things can happen crazy,” coach Keith Smart said.
If by crazy he means bad, then we would certainly have to agree, but with a lineup as potent as the Warriors, they do have the ability to win on any given night. Stephen Curry is one of the top young point guards in the league and Monta Ellis can put up numbers with the best of them. Indeed, it’s not scoring that is causing the problem for the Warriors – they put up 101.5 points per contest. They problem is that they give up 105.9. It’s difficult to outscore opponents when you’re giving up that many points.
Some betting trends:
Golden State has won 6 of their past 21 games but have won 4 of their past 5. They have lost 11 of their last 14 on the road and have dropped 5 straight to the Heat. The total has gone OVER In 6 of their last 8 against Miami and it has gone over in 6 of their last 8 in Miami. They have lost 13 of their last 15 games in Miami, as well.
Miami, as stated, has won 16 of their last 17 and are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games. They have won 7 of their last 8 at home and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Key Matchups:
Dorrell Wright vs. LeBron James
It’s fair to say James has the advantage here, but don’t sleep on Wright. After floundering in obscurity for his first six seasons in the league, he has somehow stepped up to be a very valuable performer for Golden State. He’s averaging 15 points per game and 6 boards a night and has scored 25 or more 4 times this season, including a 32 point, 11 rebound game against the Atlanta Hawks. He’s also a decent defender on a team that plays little defense, so that increases his value further. I’m not suggesting he can contain James, but he should be able to help match James’ scoring to at least some extent on the offensive end of the floor. Last game against Miami he notched a double double, going for 12 points and 11 boards. That’s really all Golden State needs from him.
Monta Ellis vs. Dwyane Wade
Both Ellis and Wade are dynamic scorers, but it’s obviously Wade who has the upper hand here. Last matchup Wade scored 34 points to Ellis’ 20, and the Heat won by 22. And that was in Golden State. Things could get ugly tonight given the Heat’s dominance at home and the Warriors struggle on the road.
The 12 point spread set by NBA oddsmakers may actually be a little low; Miami should win this by 20.
