Last player prop bets, I had a bad night, going 4 of 13 for only my third losing night so far of the season. But I still sit well above .500 on these and tonight offers a host of good lines on Bodog. Here’s a look at tonight’s prop bets for 12 different players. I went with 8 overs and 4 unders for the lines given.
Jameer Nelson over/under 10.5 Pts vs IND
OVER. He’s averaging 12.9 a game this year and put up 11 last game against Indiana. He’s averaging 12.25 pts over his last 4 games as well, after having a three game string of 9 point games, so the thought is that he continues the recent play and doesn’t revert to the 5 shot nights that he did before the last 4 games. If he can keep his attempts in the 8-12 range, he’ll cover this easily.
Darren Collison over/under 18.5 Pts+Asts vs ORL
OVER. I’m basing this more on what he did LAST YEAR against Orlando. He put up 21.5 ppg and 8.0 apg against the Magic last year and he poses a serious matchup problem for Nelson. While 18.5 is about right at his season average, if he can play anything like he did last year against the Magic, as players often do play well against certain teams, he’ll easily put up more than 18.5
Zach Randolph over/under 34.5 Pts+Rebs vs NJN
UNDER. While “Z-Bo” has been playing some great basketball, it hasn’t been over the top ridiculous good, good enough to go with an over on this…He’s fallen below 34.5 Pts+Rebs in both his last two games and in 4 of the last 5. New Jersey doesn’t really have much to stop him, but somehow kept him in check last game (11 points, 14 rebounds), so I’m expecting them to again find a way tonight.
Jrue Holiday over/under 21.5 Pts+Asts vs TOR
OVER. Last game against Toronto he went for 16 points, 6 assists, and an irrelevant to this bet 7 rebounds. Calderon has absolutely no chance of keeping Holiday in front of him and it’s more or less up to Holiday how much he wants to take advantage of that. While he has fallen under 21.5 Pts+asts in all three of his last three games, I think tonight he snaps that streak and goes over the 21.5 set by Bodog.
Andrea Bargnani over/uner 28.5 Pts+Rebs vs PHI
OVER. Before a bad streak of three games, he had gone over this number for 6 of 7 games and he has in his last two games, as well. He did also last time against the Sixers, when he scored 24 and grabbed 5 rebounds.
Rodney Stuckey over/under 15 Pts vs DEN
UNDER. For his career against the Nuggets, he is averaging 14.5 points per game. He has been at 15 or under in 3 of his last 4 games and has played under 30 minutes in three of the last four games. Billups also is a good matchup for Denver against Stuckey as he has the size to prevent Stuckey from using his 6’5″ frame to his advantage.
Joe Johnson over/under 27.5 pts+asts vs MIL
OVER. Joe Johnson did not have a good game last time against the Bucks, but since that time he has gone on a tear and has went over this line in 8 of his last 9 games. Salmons is a fair defender, but when Joe Johnson is playing his best basketball, it’s really hard for any good two guard to defend him.
Kevin Durant over/under 29.5 Pts vs MIN
OVER. It’s always hard to go under on Durant, and he has been playing poorly lately, but that’s exactly why I’m going over on this one. Durant has to pull out of his slump and Minnesota is the perfect team to do it against. I predict that he comes out focused and aggressive tonight and has the kind of game that Oklahoma City fans and players have come to expect from the league’s leading scorer.
Kyle Lowry over/under 16.5 Pts+Asts vs LAC
UNDER. Lowry has played 27 minutes or less in three of his last three games and has been under the 16.5 line in two of those three games. He’s in a time share with Brooks, anyway, so it’s difficult to predict from game to game which of them will see more minutes, but just on the fact Lowry only played 23 minutes last game, I feel like this is a good under.
Vince Carter over/under 15 Pts vs CHA
UNDER. He’ll be facing a combination of Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace, both bigger and more rugged defenders in the league. He’s been playing absolutely horrible lately (he scored 2 last game!) and the Bobcats still play good defense even since the coaching change. I feel really good about going under on this one.
Deron Williams over/under 30.5 Pts+Asts vs SAS
OVER. Deron Williams has played excellent ball this year, but he’s played even better ball at home. The Jazz are coming off a rough road trip and they will need to come out with all guns firing to have a chance against the Spurs. Deron Williams fell just under the 30.5 last time with 23 pts and 5 asts, but the fast paced game along with the fact he is at home should work in his advantage in getting over this line.
Chris Paul over/under 27.5 Pts+Asts vs GSW
OVER. Almost any time I have a point guard who is capable of big numbers playing the Warriors, I go with the over, and almost every time it works out. Tonight should be no exception. Paul had a monster game last time against the Warriors, going for 24 pts and 13 assists and should perform similarly tonight.
