Two nights ago when I last did these, I split it and went 3 of 6, bringing the weekly total to 16 of 25 correct (64% accurate). Tonight brings quite a few intriguing lines and as usual, I’ve taken recent play and performances against the team in question into account, whereas Bodog usually goes by season averages. It’s proven to be an effective strategy so far, so here’s a look at tonight’s selected player prop bets, seven ‘overs’ and two ‘unders.’
Joe Johnson over/under 21.5 pts vs HOU
OVER. Johnson is averaging 27 points per game over his last 5 games, all Atlanta wins, and tonight he’ll be at home on two days rest. He’s scored 26, 24, 28, 29, 29 in those five games and is shooting 52% from the floor. The only way he doesn’t go over this line is if the Hawks blow the Rockets out and he rests the entire fourth quarter.
Andrea Bargnani over/under 28.5 Pts+rebs vs WAS
OVER. Bargnani has been on fire since returning from injury. He’s managed at least 29 pts+rebs in all six of those games and put up 31 pts and 9 boards last game against Detroit. There’s really no reason to expect anything to change against the Wizards and JaVale McGee will be out of his element trying to contain “Bargs” on the perimeter.
DeMar DeRozan over/under 17 pts vs WAS
UNDER. DeRozan has scored 24 points COMBINED in his last two games and under 17 in 3 of his last 5. He’ll be going against Nick Young, who isn’t exactly a good defender, but if he only attempts 11 shots, as he did the last two games, he’ll have trouble scoring 17 points.
John Wall over/unde 17.5 pts vs TOR
OVER. He hasn’t scored a lot lately, but I expect that to change tonight. He’ll be guarded by the slow footed José Calderon and should be able to exploit his speed advantage to get to the hole a lot. I think Wall has a breakout game tonight after only having scored 14 last game.
Tyreke Evans over/under 17 pts vs DET
OVER. Evans is averaging 20.3 points per game in his career against the Pistons and while he has been nursing a foot issue, he should have his way when Ben Gordon is in the game for the Pistons, as Gordon has neither the size nor strength to contend with the 6’6″ 220 Evans.
Derrick Rose over/under 32.5 pts+asts vs MIA
UNDER. I am tempted to go with the over because of the fact he’ll be guarded by Carlos Arroyo…but will he really be? You have to figure given Rose’s dominance that Erik Spoelstra will put Wade on Rose and bring in Chalmers to matchup against Ronnie Brewer. It would be the most favorable situation for the Heat. Moreover, Miami’s defense has continually been one of the best in the league and their perimeter defense is what makes it so.
Dwight Howard over/under 35.5 rebs+pts vs MIN
OVER. I went under last time on Howard and got burnt. My reasoning was that it was the second night of a back to back, but I failed to take into account that Dwight Howard isn’t really human. He’ll have his way tonight with Darko Milicic and while Kevin Love will be snatching a good number of Dwight’s rebounds, he might come out with the mindset that he has something to prove to the NBA’s leading rebounder in Love.
Zach Randolph over/under 33.5 pts+rebs vs DAL
OVER. I went with the over last time on Randolph and he exploded for 34 points and 17 boards. Other than a weak scoring night against the Bobcats (mostly due to the slow pace), he has been over the 33.5 line for 6 of his last 7 games. With Dirk unlikely to play, Randolph will be abusing “The Janitor” Brian Cardinal all night on both ends of the court.
Wesley Matthews over/under 18 pts vs NJN
OVER. Last game Matthews took it to the Nets and scored 25. He’s been pretty inconsistent lately but still has scored 26, 10, 14, and 36 in his last four games. He’s a bit dicey to bet on, but I think he’ll have a big game against the Nets given the fact that Anthony Morrow and Jordan Farmar are both a few inches shorter and not very good defenders.
