Last night I split, going 4 of 8. I have only had one night under 50%, so we’ll see if I can go 50+% again tonight in 9 prop bets I have selected from Bodog, five ‘unders’ and four ‘overs.’
Jason Terry over/under 19 points vs IND
UNDER. Terry has only scored 19 or more in 2 of his last 15 games, so I am very perplexed as to why the line is set 4.4 points over his season average, especially given the fact that he isn’t on any kind of hot streak. Granted Rush and Dunleavy aren’t very good defenders, but to suggest that he scores more than 19 against Indiana for that reason does not seem right to me.
Jason Kidd over/under 19 pts+asts vs IND
UNDER. His pts+asts totals for the last 4 games: 13, 10, 16, 18. Prior to those games he had a couple back to backs over that, but Indiana and Dallas both play at about an average pace and I don’t see any reason why he will exceed what he has done the last 4 games against Darren Collison, who is a pretty good defender, even if he is undersized against the 6’4″ Kidd.
Roy Hibbert over/under 19.5 Pts+rebs vs DAL
UNDER. While Hibbert’s season average puts him over this line, he has only averaged 21 minutes per game over his last two games and only 15.5 pts+rebs in those games. Even before that when he was getting ample minutes, he only had more than 19.5 Pts+rebs in 2 of those 5 games. He got off to a great start this year, but has since cooled off considerably, plus Tyson Chandler is a good defender.
Joe Johnson over/under 21 Pts vs TOR
OVER. While he only had 16 last game against the Raptors this season, he has been on fire his last 4 games, averaging 27.5 over that stretch. DeRozan is a decent defender, but his backup, Barbosa, is way undersized to cover Joe Johnson. Even DeRozan, given his inexperience, will have trouble with Joe Johnson’s craftyness on offense.
Andrea Bargnani over/under 27 Pts+Rebs vs ATL
OVER. Since returning from injury, Bargs has been on fire. He’s averaging 23.75 Pts per game in his last 4 and 6.25 rebounds per in those four games, giving him a pts+rebs average of 30 over those games. He’ll have trouble getting boards against Atlanta, but should have no problem taking Collins outside for a lot of threes and scoring enough to make up the difference.
DeMarcus Cousins over/under 22.5 Pts+Rebs vs BOS
UNDER. While Cousins has been playing great basketball, it’s hard to imagine a rookie dominating Boston’s excellent interior defense. Moreover, the slow paced game of the Celtics will limit his opportunities. I will be very surprised if Cousins can keep up his recent play against the Celts, especially if Garnett returns to action as he is supposed to tonight.
Zach Randolph over/Under 33 Pts+Rebs Vs DET
OVER. He’s averaging 38.1 Pts+Rebs over his last 6 games and Detroit is the worst rebounding team in the entire league. Greg Monroe and Ben Wallace are both defenseless against Randolphs face up game, as well, and he should have a big scoring game in addition to the rebounding.
Brook Lopez over/under 27.5 Pts+Rebs vs PHX
UNDER. Lopez has been playing absolutely atrociously lately and has not even managed to grab 5 rebounds in his last 4 games, and he has failed to score more than 14, as well, averaging under 10 points per game and 3 rebounds per game. While Phoenix plays a much faster paced game, he will face decent big men in Robin Lopez and Marcin Gortat, and decent defense is about all it takes when Lopez is playing this bad.
Dwyane Wade over/under 25 pts vs LAC
OVER. The only thing that will hold Wade under 25 in this game is if the Heat blow the Clips out so bad that he rides the pine in favor of the bench players. He has scored 25 or more in 5 of his last 6 games including back to back 40+ games and two games at 34 pts.
