Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
Time: 4 PM CT (NBA LP)
Spread: TOR -3
Total: 194.5
Betting odds c/o Pincle
The Toronto Raptors are 18-12 this season and are traveling to face a Milwaukee Bucks team that is starting to show signs of turning around after a rough start to its 2015-16 season.
The Bucks have maintained a good record though on its homecourt where it is 9-5 and will be 3-point underdogs to the No. 4 team thus far in the Eastern Conference.
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The Bucks have won two straight with wins over the Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers. In the 113-100 win over the hapless 1-30 Sixers, Milwaukee shot 60 percent from the field while placing its entire starting lineup in double-figure scoring. Versatile swingman Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 22 on an 11 of 13 shooting night while also snagging five boards and dropping six assists. The Bucks mostly are working on queuing a defense that was so good last year, and so abysmal this season.
Milwaukee has held just one of its past five opponents under 100 points, and the team is surrendering 102 points per game on average this season. Given the team’s long, capable frontcourt, there is really no plausible excuse for the fall off. Should Milwaukee be able to rediscover its defensive mojo, this is a dangerous team. The Bucks have seven players averaging 10 points or more this season and have immense balance on a team far more talented than its 12-18 record indicates.
Free agent acquisition Greg Monroe has fit well in Milwaukee and given the Bucks a strong center capable of hurting teams in a multitude of ways. Monroe is averaging 3.5 assists per game while posting a team-high PER Of 22.2. Combining his prowess with Giannis’ and getting more out of reserve John Henson could be the key to Milwaukee becoming the defensive force it was last season when the Bucks ranked top-five in most defensive categories.
Khris Middleton received a max contract over the summer for his sharpshooting, and he has not disappointed. The 2-guard is No. 3 on the Bucks in scoring at 15 points per game while shooting 43.4 percent from downtown on 4.5 attempts per game.
The Bucks make just six threes per game, so Middleton is going to need some help from his teammates to provide better court spacing. Only Jarryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo average more than a three per game, and though the Bucks do not hit a lot of triples, the team does it at a fairly high clip when it does take them (35 percent as a team).
Bayless is currently sitting out with a sprained ankle that will keep him sidelined for up to two weeks. Without his shooting, the Bucks are going to have even more trouble keeping proper offensive spacing.
The Raptors have lost three of its past five games, but won most recently over the Dallas Mavericks 103-99. In the victory Toronto held Dirk Nowitzki and company to just 43 percent shooting, but only forced six turnovers in the game. A difference maker for Toronto was allowing just 11 free throws from Dallas while attempting 27 itself (and making 21 of those).
One-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan came through with a big offensive night, leading the Raptors with 28 points (though he did turn it over seven times). Last year’s starting All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry turned in another all-around strong performance with 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
Lowry ranks No. 3 in backcourt voting this season, so he may not return to the game as a starter, but given his strong play he should be able to make the roster as a reserve in 2016.
Lowry is averaging 20.9 points, six assists and five rebounds per game while also coming up with 2.23 steals per night. He and DeRozan are quietly one of the NBA’s best backcourts. Rounding out the perimeter is swingman free agent acquisition DeMarre Carroll, who signed after playing with the Atlanta Hawks last season.
Carroll has averaged 12.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.11 steals/blocks per game, and his value certainly cannot be seen on the basis solely offensive metrics (his 11.5 PER is really misleading). He is out with a knee contusion, and Toronto is sure to take its time allowing him to heal given he will prove vital to the team’s postseason chances.
The Raptors also get strong play from journeyman Luis Scola, an effective mid-range shooter whose value goes far beyond his 10 points per game. Scola adds veteran leadership and consistency to the Raptors and is a good supplement to 5-man Jonas Valanciunas. Jonas has been out with a hand fracture but could potentially return this game.
The Raptors may not have blown the lid off out of the gate like it did last season, but perhaps this year is a more sustainable form of team play that can render the Raptors more effective when it most matters, in the postseason.
This game may not have the star appeal of some of the other games on the slate for Saturday night, but it is a good look at two teams that have the ability to make some waves in the postseason, even if Milwaukee’s record is humble and the Raptors are not atop the East as it was during this juncture last season. Milwaukee will need to have maximum defensive effort against this Raptors team, even if Toronto is “only” averaging 99.7 points per game this year.
The Raptors have a unit capable of forcing a lot of turnovers and Toronto averages over 13 blocks/steals per game. Expect Toronto to prevail in this contest, while covering the three-point spread is certainly in play given that Lowry and DeRozan are playing so well together this season and the Bucks’ weakest point of defense is in its backcourt.
