2013 NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Quarterfinals Game #6
#3 Denver Nuggets at #6 Golden State Warriors
Warriors Lead Best of Seven Series 3-2
Thursday, May 2, 2013, 10:35 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Oracle Arena – Oakland, California
Opening Line: Golden State -1
Current Line: Golden State -1
Opening Total: 211
Current Total: 211
Opening Money Line: Warriors -110 / Nuggets -110
Current Money Line: Warriors -115 / Nuggets -105
Golden State guard Stephen Curry has lit up the Denver Nuggets in their Western Conference quarterfinal series. He is averaging 25 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals in the five previous games of the series. He is also shooting 42.2% from 3 point range. He is doing all this despite battling a sore ankle, and without the help of All-Star forward David Lee who tore his hip flexor in game #1 of the series and is out for the remainder of the post-season. It was largely because of the great play of Curry that Golden State jumped out to a surprising 3-1 series lead against the #3 seeded Nuggets.
So as the series switched back to Denver for game 5, Nuggets’ coach George Karl decided to make it a lot more difficult on Curry, as the Nuggets faced elimination. Denver was much more physical in their defense on Curry. It worked as Curry was held to 15 points on 7/19 shooting, including just 1 for 7 on three point shots. At one point Denver forward Kenneth Faried appeared to try and trip Curry as he was driving to the hoop. Curry has battled ankle injuries his entire career. The Nuggets would hold on for the 107-100 win. After the game, Warriors’ coach Mark Jackson claimed he had inside information from a Nuggets’ staff member that Denver was trying to target Curry and injure him. Ironically, Jackson played on some of those 90’s Knicks’ teams that would do everything short of murder to stop an opposing player. The game has changed and isn’t nearly as physical as it used to be though. Now the series switches back to Oakland for game 6. If the Warriors win, then they will advance to the next round against the San Antonio Spurs. A Nuggets’ win would force a game seven Saturday in Denver.
Denver is coached by George Karl. The Nuggets are outscoring teams 106-101. Denver leads the lead in scoring but is #23 in points allowed. The Nuggets are shooting 47.8% from the field and 34.3% from 3 point range. Denver is #5 in field goal percentage but #25 in 3 point shooting. The Nuggets are #28 in free throw shooting at 70.1% from the line. Denver is #2 in rebounding at 45.1 per game and #10 in rebounds allowed at 41.6 per game. Nugget opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 36.3% from 3 point range. The Nuggets are averaging 24.4 assists, 9.3 steals, 6.5 blocks, and 14.7 turnovers. Denver is 49-37-1 ATS and the total is 49-37-1 this season.
Point guard Ty Lawson averages 16.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. He missed 9 games down the stretch with a foot injury but has played the last 5 games. Small forward Danilo Gallinari is out for the season with a torn ACL. He averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. Shooting guard Wilson Chandler averages 13 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Shooting guard Andre Iguodala averages 13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Small forward Corey Brewer averages 12.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Forward Kenneth Faried averages 11.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block per game. He is probable with an ankle injury. Point guard Andre Miller averages 9.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Center JaVale McGee averages 9.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Center Kosta Koufos and forwards Evan Fournier and Jordan Hamilton also get significant minutes. Guard Julyan Stone is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
The Warriors are outscoring teams 101-100 this season. Golden State is #7 in scoring but #19 in points allowed. The Warriors are shooting 45.8% from the field and 40.3% from 3 point range. Golden State is #11 in field goal percentage and lead the league in 3 point shooting. The Warriors are #4 in free throw shooting at 79% from from the line. Golden State is #3 in rebounding at 44.9 per game, but #20 in rebounds allowed at 42.7 per game. Warrior opponents are shooting 43.9% from the field and 34.7% from 3 point range. Golden State is in the top 7 in both categories. The Warriors average 22.5 assists, 6.9 steals, 4.2 blocks, and 14.8 turnovers. Golden State is 46-39-1 ATS and the total is 49-36-1 this season.
Guard Stephen Curry averages 22.9 points, 4 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He set the NBA record for most 3 point shots made in a season with 272. He is probable with an ankle injury. Power forward David Lee averaged 18.5 points, 11 .2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Guard Klay Thompson averages 16.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Point guard Jarrett Jack averages 12.9 points, 5.6 assists, and 3.1 rebounds per game. Forward Carl Landry averages 10.8 points and 6 rebounds per game. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 9.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Center Andrew Bogut is averaging 5.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. He is probable with an ankle injury. Center Andris Biedrins is questionable with a back injury. Guard Brandon Rush is out for the season with a knee injury.
Denver is 15-6 ATS after the opponent scored 100 points or more, 2-6 in Thursday games, 1-4 after a straight up win, and on day rest, 1-5 after allowing 100 points or more, 1-6 after the opponent allowed 100 points or more, 0-4 after failing to cover, in road games, against teams with winning home records, and after scoring 100 points or more, 0-6 in Conference quarterfinal games, 0-5 against teams with winning records, overall, against Western Conference teams, and against Pacific Division teams. The over is 5-2 overall in this series and 18-5 in Oakland between the teams.
Golden State is 8-0 ATS after a straight up loss, overall, and against Western Conference teams, 7-0 after a cover, 6-0 after allowing 100 points or more, against teams with winning records, after the opponent scores 100 points or more, and against Northwest Division teams, 5-0 after the opponent allowed 100 points or more, and after scoring 100 points or more, 10-1 in conference quarterfinal games, 5-1 against teams with winning records, 4-1 at home, and one one day rest, and 1-4 in Thursday games. The Warriors have covered all 5 games in the series and have been the underdog in every game so far. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home games against the Nuggets.
Both Karl and Jackson were lobbying for calls in this game in their post game comments. It will be interesting to see how the refs call it. The crowd in Oakland should be even more wild than they normally are, and might resemble the crowd for a Broncos-Raiders game in the Black Hole. It will be tough, but I think Denver steals a game and forces game 7.
