Last time out, I managed to go 3 for 5, with all nights’ predictions having been winning ones except for one so far. Tonight offers some good betting lines and here are the player prop bets for six players in tonight’s games.
Derrick Rose Over/Under 33.5 Pts+Asts vs IND
OVER. Rose is averaging 33.4 Pts+Asts on the year. In his career versus the Pacers he is averaging 20.6 points per game and 6.9 assists per game, but as we all well know this has been a breakout year for Rose so his previous two seasons against the Pacers may not be the most relevant of stats. He has managed more than 33.5 Pts+Asts in 3 of his past 5 games, but failed to last time out against the Wolves (mainly because he was rested in a 31 point blowout win). Really, what is going to determine this line is whether Rose sees enough court time to get the stats. This game has the potential to be a blowout, but if Indiana can manage to keep the lead in single digits for most of the night, then Rose manages to exceed 33.5.
Carlos Boozer Over/Under 16.5 Pts vs IND
OVER. As I mentioned during my game preview of this game, Boozer has yet to fully hit stride this season. He has had 2 games of his 7 with 25 points or more, and that is the Boozer we are used to seeing. Tonight he will be facing Josh McRoberts & Tyler Hansbrough at the power forward position. While McRoberts has proven himself to be a decent defender, Boozer is a better player than his early numbers indicate (which seem to be what Bodog is placing the emphasis on) and I think he will score between 19 and 23 tonight.
Rudy Gay Over/Under 20 Pts vs POR
UNDER. Last time out against Portland, he met the line, scoring 20. Portland is a slow it down team, though, and for his career against Portland, Gay averages 16.8 points per game. For much of tonight’s game he will be checked by a lockdown defender in Batum, who’s 7’4″ wingspan is capable of matching up well to Gay’s length and athleticism. The Blazers will be wise to plaly Batum more than Wes Matthews in this game, as keeping Gay in check is one of the keys to beating Memphis.
Marc Gasol Over/Under 12 Pts vs POR
OVER. Gasol only scored 9 when the two teams met on November 16th, but that night he battled foul trouble. Lately he has picked up his play and has scored 13 or more in 4 of his last 6 games, with the two games under having been foul plagued games. If Gasol can manage to stay out of foul trouble, he should be good for the over on this.
Brandon Jennings Over/Under 22 Pts+Asts vs DAL
OVER. So far in his career, Jennings has had success against Jason Kidd (18.5 ppg and 7.5 apg), who at this point in his career is simply too slow to cover the lightning quick Jennings. While I don’t think Milwaukee has much of a chance of beating the Mavs tonight, I do think Jennings will exceed this line.
Monta Ellis over/Under 29.5 Pts+Asts vs UTA
OVER. Stephen Curry is out of the lineup, which means Ellis is going to be counted upon heavily to both create for himself and for his teammates. Last time against the Jazz he put up 23 pts & 4 assists, but I expect closer to 30 & 8 respectively in tonight’s game.
