Dallas at Denver
Time: 8 PM CT
Spread: DEN -5
Total: 207.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The red-hot Denver Nuggets are 5-point favorites as it hosts the visiting Dallas Mavericks at 8 PM CT on NBA League Pass. The over/under is set at 207.5 points according to NBA oddsmakers at bookmaker 5dimes.

DEN

The Denver Nuggets have won nine of its last 11 games to jump to the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference. Surprisingly, at 20-9 the Nuggets have to be considered a real contender as we have now passed the quarter-mark of the 2018-19 NBA season.

Denver does it with a uniquely constructed offense that runs through its starting center Nikola Jokic. The highly coordinated big man is averaging 16.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, and a team-leading 7.1 assists while posting a team-best PER of 24.1. While Jokic is slow afoot, he does just about everything right when he has the ball in his hands. His distributive powers have helped the Nuggets really spread out its scoring load, with six players averaging 10 points or better on the season. It also allows shooting guard Jamal Murray to start at the point guard spot and function as a shoot-first 1. Murray leads the team in scoring at 17.5 points per game while dishing out 4.5 assists per night. Gary Harris is one of the league’s underrated 2-guards, and he ranks No. 2 on the team in scoring at 16.8 per contest.
?
The Nuggets have been without swingman Will Barton the majority of the season, which is no small subtraction. Barton was averaging 16.5 points per game in his two appearances but he suffered a right hip injury that required him to leave the game on a stretcher. There are no updates on his injury, but he was said to be sidelined for six weeks after sustaining it on Oct 21. His injury has opened up playing time for Malik Beasley, who has averaged 7.3 points and 2.3 rebounds in 18 minutes a night while shooting 46 percent from the floor and 36 percent from three.

With the Nuggets cluster of guards and wingmen, the injury was a blessing in disguise for Beasley, who has mostly dwelled in the G-League since leaving Florida State as a one-and-done two years ago. The Nuggets still seem to be a team lacking balance, but perhaps that is just the beauty of its unorthodox style revolving around Jokic. Paul Millsap has seen his role decline because Trey Lyles is performing well in the Mile High City. Millsap is averaging just 13 points per game, but Lyles adds another 10; and doing the math, that is the same as any good full-time 4-man more or less.

DAL

The story in Dallas has largely been the play of sensational rookie Luka Doncic. He leads the team in scoring at 19.1 points per game while adding 6.5 rebounds and ranking No. 2 on Dallas in assists at 4.2 per game. Dennis Smith Jr. plays alongside Doncic in the backcourt, and while he initially had trouble settling in with the sensational rookie, Smith seems to be benefiting from making plays to Luka while he plays off the ball. Smith is averaging a team-best 6.2 assists per game while adding 13.9 points and 2.8 rebounds per night.
?
And the Mavs have done all of this entirely without superstar Dirk Nowitzki. While no one is sure exactly what Dirk has left in the tank, the Mavericks are turning towards the future with Smith and Doncic. Even Harrison Barnes has been efficient (by his standards) and ranks No. 2 on Dallas in scoring at 16.8 points per game.

Veterans Wes Matthews and DeAndre Jordan round out a solid starting lineup, and Jordan is doing his part to prove he can thrive without Chris Paul feeding him lobs. Jordan is averaging 11.5 points and 13.3 rebounds per game while adding 1.68 blocks/steals, in a down year for his shot blocking.

Dallas is a much better team than expected, but for those in tune with Doncic’s amazing play overseas prior to coming to the Association, perhaps this is not such a huge surprise after all. Dallas is now looking like it has a real direction under Doncic whose talents are quite hard to compare. He does not get it done with foot speed, not with athleticism, but rather with a ton of skill and some great instincts that presumably are a result of Doncic having played professionally since his early teens while overseas. The Mavericks previous identity was built on a German Nowitzki, and now it is building around Doncic with perhaps one of the best young prospects to enter the league in the last half-decade or so.