Washington Wizards AT New Jersey Nets
December 16th, 2010 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line: New Jersey -6
Current Line: New Jersey -6
Opening Total: 193
Current Total: 192
Opening Moneyline: New Jersey -265 / Washington +225
Current Moneyline: New Jersey -260 / Washington +220
Tonight’s game brings together two of the worst teams in the league and as you might expect both are riding significant losing streaks. New Jersey has dropped eight straight and Washington has lost their last five and has not won a road game all season, going 0-12 on the road. I believe that is the reason for NBA oddsmakers setting the line in New Jersey’s favor, despite Washington having a slightly better winning percentage (both teams have won six games, but Washington has 17 losses to New Jersey’s 19).
As you would expect from teams with horrible records, they both also have significant negative point differentials. Washington is -8.6, scoring 97.6, but giving up 106.2. New Jersey is slightly better with a -5.7 differential as they score 92.7 and give up 98.4. The total has gone OVER in nine of Washington’s last 12 games and it has gone over in all five of Washington’s last five road games. Oddly, Washington has won their last five games in New Jersey, and the total has gone UNDER in four of the last six on the road in New Jersey. The total has gone UNDER in four of New Jersey’s last six games, and New Jersey is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests. The total has also gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey’s last 10 games at home.
Washington is without Josh Howard and Yi Jianlian and may be without starters Andray Blatche and John Wall, too, who are both day to day. New Jersey is without the services of starting shooting guard Anthony Morrow. Jordan Farmar will replace him in the starting lineup.
Key Matchups for tonight’s game:
JaVale McGee vs. Brook Lopez
McGee is fifth in the league in blocks per game with 2.35, but his slender frame could give him problems against Lopez, who is significantly stronger. Lopez has not been hitting the boards this year and is two rebounds below his career average. Lopez is still scoring better than 19 a game, but isn’t receiving a lot of help from his teammates and at times it has appeared as though he is doing too much on offense and not defferring to Harris and Morrow enough. McGee won’t present much of a challenge for Lopez defensively, but he can’t be ignored either, as he is still scoring better than 10 points a night and his EFF is +16.70. Moreover, he has been a better rebounder than McGee and Washington is the third worst rebounding team in the league.
Gilbert Arenas vs Devin Harris
Assuming Wall can’t play tonight, Arenas will handle the point guard duties. Arenas is obviously more of a shoot first point guard than Wall (as much as Wall shoots that is hard to say) but will have to involve teammates for Washington to have much of a chance to win their first road game. Harris is having a decent year, averaging 16.2 points per game and 6.7 assists a night. His quickness and ability to get to the basket could give Arenas some problems and will prove to be one of the keys to the game.
Truly, it’s hard to say that a team that has lost 8 straight can be a six point favorite, but that is what the Vegas point spread has predicted. Expect an “ugly” game between two teams who have trouble scoring and trouble defending, too.
