Portland Trailblazers at Denver Nuggets
December 28th, 2010 at 9:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Denver -7.5
Current Line: Denver -8
Opening Total: 204
Current Total: 204
Opening Moneyline: Denver -310 / Portland +260
Current Moneyline: Denver -380 / Portland +300
Denver enters tonight’s game as losers of their past three games. They last played the Sixers and lost by 6, and before that suffered losses to powerhouses Oklahoma City and San Antonio. They’ll try to right the ship tonight against the underdog Trailblazers, who have won four of their past five, including an impressive 5 point win over Utah last time out.
Carmelo Anthony will be a game time decision for tonight’s game. He has been mourning the death of his sister. Denver has struggled without Anthony, losing their past three by an average of 6.7 points. The Nuggets haven’t dropped four games straight since February of 2007 and can only hope to avoid that fate tonight against the Blazers.
“We’ve played three really close games, we haven’t won,” coach George Karl said. “There’s not a flow to the rhythm of the players you can play because of Melo not being here.”
Denver will also be without Al Harrington who recently dislocated his thumb, so if both he and Anthony are not able to play tonight, they are going to have trouble putting up points.
Some Betting trends: Portland has won 4 of their past 5 games, but has lost 4 of their past 5 on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland’s last 9 games in Denver. Portland has lost 17 of their past 24 games against the Nuggets and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Denver. The total has gone OVER In 11 of Portland’s last 15 games on the road in Denver. Portland has also lost 13 of their past 14 in Denver.
Denver has lost 4 of their past 5 games and they are 1-4 ATS in those games. They are 11-2 at home this year and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home. The total has gone OVER In 9 of Denver’s last 13 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver’s last 9 games against Portland.
It’s difficult to ascertain what the key matchups may be with Anthony missing the game, but there are a few worth looking at.
Andre Miller vs. Chauncey Billups & Ty Lawson
Billups has been great in the last three games, since returning from his injury and trying to fill the scoring void left by Carmelo Anthony. Billups has scored 20, 30, and 24 in his past three games, while shooting 54% from the floor. Andre Miller has the frame and size to stick with Billups and held Billups to 13 points on 3 of 8 shooting last time the teams met. Miller recently had a 17 point, 15 assist outing against the Warriors on December 18th and he had 17 and 6 last game in their victory over the Jazz. If Melo is unable to go, Billups will look for his shot early and often and Miller is going to have to be ready to combat that. Ty Lawson will also see a lot of time at point guard and has scored 14 or more in his last 7 games, including 2 games with 20+. Lawson, like Billups, is a good three point shooter and Andre Miller will have to stay up on him and close out on shots.
Marcus Camby vs. Nenê
Nenê has continued his solid play of year’s past and is still steadily improving. Camby, however, has one of the longest frames in the NBA and will be able to use his length to force Nenê into tough shots. In his career against the Blazers, Nenê has averaged 14.3 points per game and 7.0 rebounds per game, slightly above his career average. Last game against Portland, Nenê went for 12 points and 7 boards. Camby isn’t much of a scoring threat, but he can’t be left open either, as he is an effective mid range shooter. Nenê is a big time help defender, but he will have to stay at home on Camby most of the time or he could pay.
If Melo misses tonight’s game, it’s an almost certainty that Denver does not cover the spread. NBA Oddsmakers seem to have went under the assumption that Carmelo will play. It may be prudent to make an NBA Pick ATS in this one in favor of Portland.
