Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavs
December 28th, 2010 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Orlando -7.5
Current Line: Orlando -7.5
Opening Total: 191
Current Total: 192.5
Opening Moneyline: Orlando -400 / Cleveland +330
Current Moneyline: Orlando -360 / Cleveland +280
Both teams come in riding streaks. Orlando has won three straight against San Antonio, Boston, and New Jersey. They became the first team in 13 years to end two ten plus winning streaks by opposing teams in back to back games. Cleveland, meanwhile, has dropped their past three, to Minnesota, Atlanta, and Utah. They have a horrible -8.9 point differential, as they only manage 93.7 points per game while giving up 102.6. Orlando is +4.1, scoring 96.9 and giving up 92.8.
There should be a lot of made threes, at least for Orlando. They are third best in the league with 8.6 threes made per game, and Cleveland gives up the most threes per game with opponents averaging 8.6 threes per night against Cleveland. Orlando dealt out three great three point shooters in their trades (Pietrus, Carter, and Rashard Lewis), but they brought back three marksman as well in Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu, so nothing should change as far as their inside-outside three point attack.
Orlando’s defense has been particularly great of late, and Cleveland hasn’t scored more than 100 points in a game in over a month. It would seem to indicate there is a great chance at the total going UNDER, and indeed the total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland’s past 12 home games. They have dropped 13 of their last 14 games and are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Magic. However, worthy to note is that the total has gone OVER In 4 of Cleveland’s past 5 home games against the Magic, but perhaps this is overstated since it dates back to what can only be called “The LeBron Era.” Orlando has lost 5 of their last 7 road games and has dropped 4 of their past 6 in Cleveland.
Some key matchups to watch:
Jameer Nelson vs. Mo Williams
Jameer Nelson’s scoring has taken a small hit since the trade that brought in Gilbert Arenas. Since then he is averaging 12.4 points per game, slightly less than his 14.1 for the season. Last game against Cleveland, he scored 20 points and dished out 6 assists in a 111-100 Magic win. Equally, however, Mo Williams had a big night, too, scoring 20 points and dishing out 8 assists. His stats on the year are slightly better than Nelson’s, too, scoring 15.3 and dishing out 7.2 assists, but that is a moot comparison, as Nelson could probably do even more damage if he were on the horrid-lacking-offensive-firepower Cavs team.
Dwight Howard vs. Anderson Varejao
Dwight Howard had a typical Dwight Howard night last game against Varejao, scoring 23 points and grabbing 11 boards. Varejao looks to flop a lot against Howard and Dwight will need to be careful not to get into early foul trouble since the Magic essentially have no backup center now. Varejao isn’t much of a threat offensively, but if Howard cheats off him too much he could get some garbage buckets.
Given the Magic’s recent play, NBA Oddsmakers seem to have set the point spread a little low on this one. Look for the Magic to come out firing. Cleveland is a bad team, and they aren’t even good at Quicken Loans arena, so the Magic should have no problem covering the spread.
