Oklahoma City Thunder AT San Antonio Spurs
January 11, 2011 at 8:35 PM EST
Opening Line: San Antonio -6.5
Current Line: San Antonio -6.5
Opening Total: 204.5
Current Total: 203.5
Opening Moneyline: San Antonio -290 / OKC +240
Current Moneyline: San Antonio -300 / OKC +240
San Antonio continues to roll. They have the best record in the league at 28-4 and are 18-2 at home, but Oklahoma City is a good road team at 10-5, and NBA oddsmakers have given them the benefit of the doubt, setting the line 6.5 points in San Antonio’s favor. San Antonio just took down two of the other elite powers in the Western Conference, beating Dallas last game by 6 and blowing out the Lakers by 15 the game before. Oklahoma City has won their last two games against Atlanta and New Jersey, but dropped a game to Dallas before that by 10.
San Antonio has won 11 straight at home, but Popovich is still finding reason for fault. The Mavs were without Nowitzki last game and still managed to keep it close.
“We don’t take too much out of the win,” Popovich said. “We didn’t show very much. We didn’t improve as a team, that’s for sure.”
Duncan has posted 33 double doubles in 47 games against the Oklahoma City franchise (dating back to the Seattle Supersonic days), but is still struggling this year and is having the weakest year of his NBA career. That’s not to say he isn’t effective, however, as he showed some “vintage Duncan” last game against the Lakers big frontline, going for 17 points and 11 boards. He will have to take advantage of the Thunder’s weaker frontline, though Ibaka is a great defender capable of frustrating many of the big men in the league with his speed and tenacity.
Some betting trends:
Oklahoma City has won 9 of their past 12 and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their past 5 on the road. They are 9-4 in their past 13 road games and the total has gone OVER In 5 of their last 7 in San Antonio. They have lost 5 of their last 6 in San Antonio and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against the Spurs. The total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 in San Antonio, and they have lost 11 of their past 13 at the AT&T Center.
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 8 of their last 11 at home. The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 against Oklahoma City.
Some key matchups for tonight’s game:
Russell Westbrook vs. Tony Parker & George Hill
Parker & Hill are two of the few players in the league with the lateral speed and quickness to stay in front of Westbrook, and will be able to force him to take more jumpers than he may be comfortable with, though his jumper has improved. Westbrook has emerged as one of the best point guards in the league and is teaming up with Durant to put up 50+ points a night. His 8.1 assists per game rank him 9th in the league and he is a lock to make his first all star apperance this year. Parker and Hill are both capable scorers, but Westbrook should be able to control them with his strength and size (he’s 6’3″, 3″ taller than Parker and 1″ taller than Hill) and keep them from getting too many easy looks in the paint.
Kevin Durant vs. Richard Jefferson
Richard Jefferson is winding down his NBA career but is still a capable defender. The problem here is that he doesn’t have the length (few do at SF) to contest Durant’s jumpers. Durant went for 34 last meeting between the teams and should be able to do similar damage tonight. He’s averaging 27.3 points per game in his career against San Antonio. Jefferson is having a solid year with 13.6 points per game and he’s shooting a stellar 43% from beyond the arc. Durant will have to keep an eye on him to prevent him from getting too many open looks from the corner three.
While San Antonio has been dominant both at home and overall, this still should be a good game. The matchups are favorable for the Thunder which gives them the ability to make this a close one.
