Oklahoma City Thunder AT Atlanta Hawks
Mar 4, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Atl -2.5
Current Line: Atl -4
Opening Total:  191
Current Total: 191
Opening Moneyline:  Atlanta -165 / OKC +145
Current Moneyline:  Atlanta -175 / OKC +155

Oklahoma City may be without Durant again, but if Russell Westbrook continues to dominate as he has, it probably won’t matter.  Though Atlanta is favored in this game, it is only by 4 points, and 2.5 when betting opened, so vegas oddsmakers are giving the Thunder their due props.

Atlanta is lucky they won’t encounter Durant, who has averaged better than 30 points a game in the last 4 matchups against the Hawks.  In other injury news, Josh Smith is day to day with a right knee injury.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of OKC’s last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of OKC’s last 6 games against the Hawks.  Oklahoma City is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Atlanta and the Thunder are 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home against the Hawks.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 9 games and the total has gone UNDER In 10 of their last 15 at home.  Atlanta is 15-4 SU in their last 19 at home and the Hawks are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 games against the Thunder and Atlanta is 3-11 SU in their last 14 games against Oklahoma City.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against OKC and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home against the Thunder.  Atlanta is 1-6 SU in their last 7 at home against Oklahoma City.

Key Matchups:

Russell Westbrook vs. Mario Chalmers & Mike Bibby

Though both Lebron James and Dwyane Wade had promised Bibby they would help when he is up against a quicker point guard, I expect Chalmers to see the lion’s share of the minutes against the lightning quick Westbrook.  If the Heat try to play Bibby, Westbrook will just get off that much more.  Westbrook has scored 20 or more in 3 of his last 4 games, and is averaging 22 points per game on the year, along with 8.4 assists per game.

Bibby will lend a new element to the Heat’s attack, as he shoots 44% from threes this year.  When defenses collapse on Wade or Lebron, Bibby will be there to punish them with a 3.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see his scoring average get up in the 13-14 point per game area once he acclimates to Miami’s offense and gets ample playing time. Chalmers has been playing well, but quite simply he is not the player Bibby is and will find himself facing more time on the pine as time goes on.

Serge Ibaka vs. Josh Smith

Ibaka has done admirably this year as it looked like he would following his standout performance against the Lakers in the 2010 playoffs when he blocked 7 shots in game two.  This year he is averaging 9.2 points per game and 7.3 rebounds, and also an outstanding 2.1 blocks per game.  Josh Smith knows a thing or two about shotblocking as well, and averages 1.7 blocks per game this year, down from his 2.1 last year.  Smith is a much better scorer than Ibaka though, averaging 16.7 pionts per game, as well as 8.7 rebounds per game and 3.4 assists per contest.  Smith, always an able bodied defender, also averages 1.4 steals per game.  Ibaka is going to have to do everything in his power to keep Smith from getting going.

Though the Thunder are underdogs in tonight’s game, even without Durant they have a great shot at winning the game.