Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
December 23rd, 2010 at 10:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Milwaukee -1
Current Line: Milwaukee -2
Opening Total: 185.5
Current Total: 186
Opening Moneyline: Milwaukee -140 / Sacramento +120
Current Moneyline: Milwaukee – 140 / Sacramento +120
Mil
waukee, somewhat miracuously, won last game against the Lakers. The miracle wasn’t in the way they played the game; the miracle was Kobe Bryant getting ejected. The heavily favored Lakers lost the game badly, even with Bucks missing floor general Brandon Jennings. The win snapped a three game skid the Bucks had, with previous losses to the Blazers, Jazz, and Spurs. Sacramento has been absolutely horrid and has dropped their past six contests, with three of them coming against other poor teams (Houston twice, and Golden State). They’ll have as good a chance as any to rebound tonight against the Bucks who simply aren’t the same team without their high scoring run and gun guard Jennings.
What will enable the Bucks to win this game, as they are favored by NBA oddsmakers, is their stellar defense. They give up only 93.1 a game, but the last four games they have given up 98 per game. Their offense may struggle, but last game it was the tiny 5’5″ Earl Boykins that saved the day with 22 points and Salmons came up big with 20, too, though he has been struggling this year. “I think as a team, if we get that effort, we can be tough,” Salmons said. “We still haven’t been healthy all year. We just have to go in every night, compete, play hard and see what happens.”
Some betting trends: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee’s past 6 games. They are 6-11-1 ATS over their last 18 games and they are 3-6 ATS on their last 9 road games. They have lost 7 of their last 9 on the road though and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the past 6 when playing Sacramento.
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Sacramento’s past 21 games. They have dropped their past 6 games, in which they are 1-5 ATS. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 home games and they have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. They have won only 5 of their last 23 at home, but are 13-5 over their last 18 games against the Bucks. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against Milwaukee.
Key Matchup for tonight’s game:
John Salmons vs. Tyreke Evans
Evans is the reigning rookie of the year, but as I wrote in my player prop bet article about Sacramento, I predicted him to have a bit of a sophomore slump and cool off, and he certainly has. With teams more prepared to key in on him, his scoring average has fallen 3.3 points a game to 16.8 and his assists have dropped 0.5 a game, as well. He’s still playing good basketball, but his field goal percentage is an atrocious 38.3%, mainly due to teams putting bigger players on Evans to prevent him from abusing the smaller point guards. He’s scored but 14.5 per game over his last two games and will have a tough matchup in Salmons. Salmons is taller than Evans and close to being as strong, so Evans’ main two advantages are negated. Look for Salmons to attempt to use his size against Evans to get advantages close to the goal.
Tonight should be a close battle between two horrible teams, and NBA oddsmakers have set the spread close. Milwaukee is without Jennings, but their defense is still tough, and Sacramento has home court advantage.
