Milwaukee Bucks at L.A. Lakers
December 21st, 2010 at 10:35 PM EST
Opening Line: L.A. -12
Current Line: L.A. -12
Opening Total: 189
Current Total: 189
Opening Moneyline: L.A. -1500 / Milwaukee +950
Current Moneyline: L.A. -1200 / Milwaukee +800
NBA oddsmakers have set the spread wide tonight, apparently taking into account Milawukee’s poor play of late, as they have dropped their past three games to Portland (by 26), Utah (by 9) and San Antonio (by 2). The Lakers, conversely, are riding a five game winning streak and have won 9 of their last 10 to pull themselves within 1.5 games of 2nd seeded Dallas.
It’s going to be very tough for the Bucks to win without their floor general, Brandon Jennings, who recently was sidelined for at least four weeks after fracturing a bone in his left foot. Milwaukee, as mentioned, lost by 26 points in their first outing without Jennings, looking confused and disorientated on offense without Jennings at the helm.
The Lakers finished an Eastern Conference road trip with a 120-110 victory against the Raptors. They swept the road trip and got huge contributions from their bench, led by Andrew Bynum, who recently returned to the lineup. He hasn’t been starting but that may change tonight.
Some betting trends: Milwaukee has lost 11 of their last 16 games and are 1-7 on the road in their past 8 road games. They have lost their last 5 to the Lakers and are 1-8 in their last 9 in L.A. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against L.A. Lakers and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 road games against the Lakers.
L.A. has won their last five games and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of their last 17 games. The total has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 home games. They have won 22 of their past 25 games at home and are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Bucks.
Last game between the teams the Lakers won 118-107. That night, both Kobe Bryant and Brandon Jennings scored 31, and the Bucks still lost; tonight without Jennings it is going to be very difficult to keep up with the Lakers’ scoring.
Some key matchups to watch tonight:
Andrew Bogut vs. Pau Gasol / Andrew Bynum
Unlike most nights for Bogut when he has a clear advantage, tonight he’ll actually be up against two centers that are better than him. Bogut is averaging 14.1 points per game and 11.5 rebounds per game and last game against the Lakers he had 12 points and 18 boards. Pau Gasol has been his usual dominant self and outscored Bogut last game they faced each other, going for 18 points. Gasol is averaging 19.8 points per game and 11.1 rebounds per game this year, and leads all centers in assists with 4.2 a game. Bynum has been eased back into the lineup but has played well. It remains to be seen if he is a starter in tonight’s game, which would shift Gasol over to Power forward, or whether he comes off the bench again. Either way, he is going to be a challenge for Bogut as his size and length will give Bogut problems (though they are both listed at 7’0″).
John Salmons vs. Kobe Bryant
While Salmons is a decent defender, it takes more than “being decent” to slow down Kobe Bryant. As mentioned, Kobe had a typical Kobe game last time against the Bucks and went for 31. For his career against the Bucks, he is avearging 24.2 points per game, slightly below his career average of 25.3, but the Bucks’ team has changed throughout the years so there is no reasonable means for comparison between Salmons and past Bucks shooting guards. Last game these teams played, Salmons went for 10 points and 6 assists. This year he is having a down year. His scoring average is down 6.8 points from last season to 13.1 this year. This is mostly attributed to a) he is shooting 3 less shots a game and b) he is hitting only 38.1% from the field. For the Bucks to have any chance tonight, Salmons is going to have to play better defense against Kobe Bryant and he is going to have to score more. With Jennings out, someone has to shoulder the load.
