Denver Nuggets AT San Antonio Spurs
January 16th 2011 at 9:00 PM EST
Opening Line: San Antonio -7.5
Current Line: San Antonio -7.5
Opening Total: 211.5
Current Total: 209
Opening Moneyline: SA -330 / Den +280
Current Moneyline: SA -340 / Den +270
For a team that doesn’t know how much longer they will be together, the Denver Nuggets have found a way to continue to play inspired basketball, winning their last three games by an average of 30 points. Winning tonight might not prove to be as easy, as the Spurs have won 14 straight at home and continue to dominate on their home court as well or better than any team in the league. Moreover, San Antonio has won both their meetings against the 23-16 Nuggets this year, and their last four overall against them, making the prospect of extending the winning streak that much more difficult.
“As far as we’re concerned, rumors don’t really affect the way you prepare against the Denver Nuggets,” San Antonio’s Richard Jefferson(notes) said. “They’re a Carmelo-based team, and they have been since he’s been there.”
For as much as the Spurs are supposed to be an aging and over the hill team, they haven’t looked like it. They’re playing a faster pace basketball game this year and are off to the best 40 game start in franchise history.
Some betting trends:
Denver is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 road games. The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 road games and they are 1-5 SU in their last 6 on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games against the Spurs and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against San Antonio. The total has also gone UNDER in 11 of their last 12 road games against San Antonio. Denver is 8-17 SU in the last 25 games in San Antonio.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Spurs’ last 5 games and they are 5-0 SU in those games. The total has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 at home and they are 5-0 SU in those 5 games.
Key matchups:
Carmelo Anthony vs. Richard Jefferson
Carmelo Anthony seems determined to make the best of his last days in Denver. While he may have only scored 12 last game against the Cavs, it was a blowout and he only played 27 minutes. In the two games prior he scored 21 and 28 and is still averaging better than 23 points per game on the year. Richard Jefferson is a decent defender but if Carmelo comes out focused, he will destroy Jefferson on the block where he has a significant size and strength advantage. Melo sat out with an injury last time the two teams met and the Nuggets still only lost by 6, so a healthy Melo could propel them over the top tonight.
Chauncey Billups vs. Tony Parker
Billups, like Melo, is looking at the prospect of being traded, but unlike Melo, he doesn’t want to be. Billups grew up in Denver and played at Colorado University and would like to finish his career as a Nugget. His numbers are down this year but mostly due to the emergence of Ty Lawson. Billups is only playing 32 minutes a game this year, down over 3 minutes from last year and his field goal percentage is down slightly too. Again, like Carmelo, he’ll have a size and strength advantage over his opponent in Parker, but Parker usually finds a way to defend bigger players using his guile and wit. Moreover, he’ll be able to utilize his speed on the offensive end and attempt to get into the paint to create for himself or for the Spurs’ interior players.
Tonight represents a big opportunity for the Nuggets. They are seeking to prove themselves against a Spurs team that has dominated them in recent times.
