Dallas Mavericks AT Sacramento Kings
Feb 9, 2011 at 10 PM EST
Opening Line: Dallas -4
Current Line: Dallas -5.5
Opening Total: 196.5
Current Total: 196
Opening Moneyline: Dal -215 / Sac +185
Current Moneyline: Dal -240 / Sac +195
Dallas is coming off a 3 point win against the worst team in the league — possibly the worst team ever — in the Cleveland Cavs. The Cavs found a way to keep it close and hold Dallas under 100 and had a shot to win it in the final seconds, but Anthony Parker missed a three. Jason Terry enigmatically called Cleveland a good team. “We knew this game was gonna be tough,” said Terry “A team fighting for their lives, don’t want to make history and had lost as many as they lost … That’s a good ballclub.” I suppose any way NBA players want to justify a game that was much closer than it should have been is fine, but Cleveland is far from a “good ballclub,” and the Sacramento Kings aren’t much better.
Sacramento (12-36) has lost the ir last 3 games and are one game ahead of Minnesota for the worst record in the Western conference. It won’t be any easier against the Mavs given Minnesota’s recent track record against them. They’ve lost 23 of the last 28 games to Dallas.
Some betting trends:
Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games and the total ahs gnoe OVER In 6 of their last 8 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’ last 6 road games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games. Dallas is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games against the Kings. Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Sacramento and 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games in Sacramento.
Sacramento is 4-11 SU in their last 15 games and 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home. Sacramento is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-5 SU in their last 5 against Dallas. Sacramento is 8-14-2 ATS in their last 24 games against the Mavs and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the teams. Sacramento is 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games against Dallas.
Key Matchups:
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Jason Thompson
Dirk is coming off a poor game. He scored only 12 points on 5 of 11 shooting against the Cavaliers and he committed 5 turnovers. In the four games previous to last game, however, he scored 25, 29, 29, and 24, and that is the type of game one should expect tonight from Dirk. While Thompson is a decent power forward and good defender, he’ll have trouble keeping with Nowitzki at the top of the key, where Dirk will be able to utilize his array of moves to keep Thompson off balance. For his career against the Kings, Dirk is averaging 23.9 points per game, 9.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks. Last game against Sacramento he went for 25 pts, 5 asts, 5 rebs, in a 2 point Dallas victory. Thompson is back in the starting lineup after missing a couple of games due to injury, but Thompson has not been very impressive this year. In his third NBA season, Thompson is finding himself averaging career lows in all statistical categories and it’s peplexing as to why. He’s still the same player in the same system, but getting less minutes, and that really is out of his hands, anyway.
DeShawn Stevenson & Jason Terry vs. Tyreke Evans
Evans is having a bit of a sophomore slump this year. His numbers are down in most statistical categories, but not by a lot. He’s averaging 18.1 points per game this year (20.1 last year), 5.4 assists (5.8 last year), 4.7 rebounds (5.3 last year), and he’s doing it in about the same amount of playing time. DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Terry will have a very difficult time slowing down Evans, though Stevenson is known to be a good defender. Evans is still a much better athlete and could get Stevenson into foul trouble if he is aggressive in taking the ball to the basket.
Tonight’s game is predicted by NBA Oddsmakers to be much closer than I thought it would be. Sacramento is not a very good team and they’re not even good at home (7-20).
