NBA Picks ATS: Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
December 29th, 2010 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Boston -6.5
Current Line:  Boston -6
Opening Total:  189
Current Total: 186
Opening Moneyline:  Boston -240 / Detroit +220
Current Moneyline:  Boston -255 / Detroit +215

Garnett is averaging 10+ rebounds for the first time since 06-07

Tonight’s game brings together one of the best in the Eastern Conference against one of the worst.  The Celtics have won 15 of their last 16 games, and have done so for part of them without their floor general Rajon Rondo.  Rondo isn’t expected back for tonight’s game, but Doc Rivers said he could return as soon as Friday, which will make the Celtics only tougher still.  Detroit, despite their 10-21 record, is decent at home (7-8) and will look to avenge a 25 point loss that they suffered last game against the Celtics.

Kevin Garnett has almost returned to “vintage Garnett,” and is having his best year since 06-07.  He has 14 double doubles already this year, 4 more than he had for the entire year last year.

In the last 8 games that Garnett played against Detroit, they have won by an average of 14.5 points, but to show how much they need Garnett, they have lost the last two without him against Detroit.

Some Betting Trends:

Boston has won 7 of their past 8 road games and have won 8 of their last 10 against Detroit.  The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Boston’s last 22 games against Detroit, but it has gone OVER In 4 of their past 5.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston’s last 9 games on the road in Detroit.  The Celts have won 5 of their last 6 at the Palace.

The Total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games and Detroit has lost 11 of their last 15.  The total has  gone OVER in 8 of Detroit’s last 10 home games and it has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against Boston.

Some Key Matchups for tonight’s game:

Kevin Garnett vs. Jason Maxiell & Charlie Villanueva

Villanueva said last game that he played against Garnett, that Garnett called him a “cancer patient.”  Villanueva suffers from alopecia, which causes the body not to grow hair, so he took offense to that naturally, but Garnett denied making the comment, instead saying he said Villaneuva was a “cancer to his team.”  All that aside, expect Villanueva to come out firing at Garnett and he may take some bad shots because of it.  Last game, Villanueva had 25 points and his inside-outside approach may give Garnett problems.  Garnett, though, is having the best year he has had in a long time and should get the better of this matchup.  Maxiell will play some minutes, but expect Charlie V. to come off the bench for the majority of the minutes at power forward.

Nate Robinson vs. Rodney Stuckey

To say Stuckey has a size advantage against Robinson would be to say Goliath had one against David.  Stuckey is 6’3″ and well built and Nate Robinson is a generously listed 5’9″ (I believe he’s closer to 5’5″).  Look for Stuckey to try to bully Nate Robinson around the court, but at the same time expect Nate Robinson to use his speed on the offensive end.  This truly is a matchup of two point guards as different as they come and it could prove to be a crucial one for both teams, as I fully expect the winner of this battle to contribute a lot to the NBA pick for this game.

Detroit is in over their heads against the Celtics and NBA Oddsmakers have set the line closer than I would imagine it would be given Boston’s dominance both on the road and against the Pistons.

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