San Antonio at Chicago
Time: 8 PM ET
TV: TNT
Spread: SAS -5.5
Total: 197
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The Chicago Bulls are 27-16 and 15-6 away from the United Center, but a trip to Texas to face the San Antonio Spurs isn’t expected to go well according to NBA oddsmakers.
Late lines at oddsmaker Bovada showed the Spurs as 5.5 point favorites over the Bulls, who have dropped six of its past 10 contests.
Last time out, the Bulls lost 108-94 to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan 19. Jimmy Butler scored 20, and he’s a leading candidate for the league’s Most Improved Award. Butler, at one point thought to be just mostly a defender, has come through to be a 20-plus point per game scorer, while posting the second-highest PER of any Chicago Bull (21.3).
Butler is outstanding defensively, far more than even his 2.4 blocks/steals per game. Butler can defend 1, 2, and 3s, and he’s a superb rebounder for a guard. Combining Butler with a healthy Derrick Rose should be all the Bulls need…
If Rose were himself, that is. Derrick has played in 32 of the Bulls 43 games this season and is seeing just under 30 minutes a night in those games. But he’s having to rely on jumpshots a lot more than in the past, and his trademark explosiveness and strength are all but absent. He’s shooting just 41 percent from the floor and and he’s only 31 percent from behind the arc. Combining this with a disproportionate number of turnovers (3.1 per game) helps account for Rose’s barely above average PER (17.0).
The Bulls once again have a terrific second unit, headed by Taj Gibson and Aaron Brooks. Brooks has re-emerged from obscurity, and point guards generally fare well under coach Tom Thibodeau, which made the notion of having really lost something when D.J. Augustin bolted laughable. The same could be said about Brooks, should Chicago part ways with him, because Thibbs is making the point guard valuable through his system. That said, Brooks averages 11 points in just 20 minutes of play a night, while dishing out three assists in that span.
Gibson is a steady double/double if he were given starters minutes, but coming off the bench to see 28 minutes a game gives the undersized small forward averages of 11 points and seven boards per game. Gibson is a good shot blocker, swatting away 1.32 shots per game, and he challenges just about everyone at the rim.
If he doesn’t block it, he’s going to change it, foul the player, or at least cause some hesitation. His old school demeanor is part of what helps this Bulls team succeed. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah embodies this hustle, too, and he’s been good for 7.6 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. He’s nursing a right ankle sprain and is unlikely to play in this game, though it does not appear to be so serious as to hold him out long after this one.
Pau Gasol has usurped Noah’s role in the offense to some degree and is averaging over five assists per game like Noah did last season. Gasol is also scoring 18.7 points and 11.4 rebounds per game, numbers that rival his earlier days in Los Angeles and nearly his numbers while in is prime in Memphis. The Bulls have a strong rotation and the best team to match it is one with an equally strong bench, the San Antonio Spurs.
By Spurs terms, a 27-16 start isn’t fantastic. And as usual detractors will come in and say this is the year that San Antonio falls off. And it continues to prove nonsensical. Though Gregg Popovich’s team sits 8.5 games behind No. 1 seeded Golden State at this point, the Spurs will be in the West’s top-4 by the end of the season.
San Antonio has won eight of its past 10 games and has a four-game win streak. The system Pop employs guarantees success, and the fluidity of the offense dictates that intelligent players like Tim Duncan (and even Boris Diaw) will have opportunities to take advantage of holes within interior defenses. The fact that every Spurs starter (and to a degree even the reserves) is an above average passer already renders this very successful.
2014 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard is embracing his role as San Antonio’s number one offensive option. He’s increased his scoring load to 15.4 points per game, as one of six Spurs who average at least 10 points per game.
Like Butler of the Bulls, Leonard initially made his way into the Association with the ticket of Defense and Athleticism, but he’s evolved into a complete player in his short NBA career. Leonard is a terror defensively, still too, averaging 2.8 blocks/steals per game while also minimizing his turnovers on the other end (1.5 per game). He’s clearly learned from playing with Tony Parker, and his decision making reflects it.
Parker is having a down year statistically, and is right at the league average for PER. He’s much better than an average point guard but he’s missed time with injuries and has appeared in 29 games this season. Shooting guard Marco Belinelli is out right now, listed as having a left groin problem and there’s no time table on his return.
Tim Duncan probably will be this effective until he retires. Going off nearly all guile, Duncan averages 15 points and 10 rebounds per game while blocking about two shots per game as well. His PER (22) is well above the average at his position, and he’s far outclassing all the younger power forwards on a nightly basis.
This is the stuff of what legends are made of.
Duncan has won four titles, and he doesn’t need a fifth to solidify his position as the greatest 4-man of all-time, but he likely will have a great shot at claiming a fifth ring in June, even if San Antonio isn’t blowing the West out of the water right now. The playoffs will be a tight dog fight in the West from seeds 1 to 8, so the Spurs know better than to allow a lower seeding affect its chances that much.
