NBA on ESPN Picks: Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers

Goran Dragic-heat-2015Miami Heat (1-0) at Cleveland Cavaliers (1-0)
Time: 7 PM ET (ESPN)
Spread: CLE -5.5
Total: 200

Betting odds c/o Bovada

MIAMI HEAT

The Miami Heat won its opener 104-94 behind 21 points from All-Star Chris Bosh. Bosh suffered from a lung clot last season. Teams can hardly exercise enough cautions with that ailment and the Heat had to hold Bosh out as it fell out of the postseason. It turned out to be a strange gift to itself.

In missing the 2015 postseason Miami ended up with the No. 10 overall pick and Justise Winslow of Duke slipped. The Heat now have one of the best defenders in the 2015 draft and a guy whose athleticism alone could render him an offensive success probably sooner than most expect.

It does not even really matter whether Winslow is a 2 or a 3, because he has the potential to be the best in the draft class, or at least a top-three talent when it is all said and done. It could not come a moment sooner with Luol Deng reaching the end of a very good NBA career. Winslow will have a strength advantage against both 2s and 3s and has a build and feel not dissimilar from Jimmy Butler of the Bulls.

Goran Dragic was a heist to help give the Heat some semblance of a Big Three, with Bosh and Dwyane Wade still in tow. Wade clearly has plenty left in the tank, and the Heat are going to be a tough team.

Chris Andersen has become more cerebral about his defense than we maybe ever would have imagined, and is a nice body off the bench behind the very talented Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside at times has looked like the best young big man in the league. Seeing him take the leap to challenge the likes of Andre Drummond and Rudy Gobert this season would be inspiring for Heat fans.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

The Cleveland Cavaliers were ravaged by injuries at the worst time when they lost the 2015 NBA Finals with their starting 1 and 4s out of the lineup. All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving was and still is out, as the Cavs are unsure whether he can lace up.

The Cavs were still able to spank Memphis 106-76 as Kevin Love went for 17 points and 13 rebounds. The Cavs got 50 points off its bench, one that is not considered especially great even. The team knocked down 13 of 29 from three-point range and held a plus-14 advantage on the glass against the Grizz, one of the league’s better interior teams.

The Cavs are a great team even without Love and Irving. LeBron James alone was enough to push the Golden State Warriors to six games, and after the Cavs took a 2-1 lead it certainly seemed like he could will the Cavs to victory.

Matthew Dellavedova became a cult figure for a 21 point game, while proving to be an adequate point guard most of the series, despite Stephen Curry eventually finding his groove and destroying the Cavs. Delly scored 12 on 5 of 9 shooting in the opener.

But more than anything the team needs tough play in its frontcourt. The Warriors won by going small with Andre Iguodala starting at center, and the Cavs let that happen. Timofey Mozgov, Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love have to play like a great forecourt rotation.

Thompson in particular somehow ended up with a max contract and will need to play to a higher standard. Mozgov at times was dominant, but he has his faults as an NBA big. He is not overly mobile and his transition defense is shaky at best.

The Cavaliers are a dangerous team just with LeBron James doing things. His 2009 Cavs team was less talented even than the ’15 team. But James will need at least one of the two health between Love and Irving, and if it is Love he better be producing.

Kevin Love’s precipitous fall from grace since leaving Minnesota has been well-documented, but what has been less clear is the exact cause. Yes, K-Love has fought injury, but he really has done little right while on the court. His once deft three point shooting has fallen off to passable. He is a guy who won a three-point shootout, but teams did not hesitate to leave him open last season.

The Cavs are still the best team in the NBA, but only arguably so. Is everyone going to be healthy? If not, then the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors are clearly better. The L.A. Clippers may be as well, if only James is good to go of the Big Three. A team is only as good as it is healthy, but just with a 60 game season from Irving and 60 to 70 quality starts from Love produces 55 wins.

But things will presumably be better than the worst case scenario and this team improves its season wins. Does it win a title?

Roll the dice on Love staying healthy or Irving having the guts to go. Either way, if this team captures a title it will be because James has gone nuts again. He’s making his case to be a top-10 all-time NBA talent, and still has time to make up for having “just” two rings.

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