San Antonio at Houston
Time: 7 PM CT (ESPN)
Spread: HOU -11.5
Total: 210.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The Houston Rockets cling precariously to a 1.5 game lead for the No. 1 seed i the Western Conference. Houston has been on fire and has won nine of its last 10 games, and it will host the visiting San Antonio Spurs in the first half of a Monday night ESPN Doubleheader.
The Rockets are heavy 11.5-point favorites over the Spurs, who have lost eight of its last 10 games and are in danger of slipping out of the playoff seedings, leading No. 9 Denver by just a half-game in the standings. San Antonio is just 14-21 on the road this season, and the Rockets are an outstanding 25-6 at the Toyota Center.
HOUSTON
Houston has been on fire. It had won 17-straight games until a 108-105 loss to the Toronto Raptors, but it followed that game up with a 105-82 blowout of the Dallas Mavericks. Everything seems to be clicking for Mike D’Antoni’s team, including its defense. The Rockets rank No. 9 in defensive rating, limiting teams to 106.7 points per-100 possessions, all the while maintaining the league’s best offense, ranking No. 1 in offensive efficiency with 115.8 points per-100.
The Rockets also, predictably, have the league’s best point differential, with a +8.9 mark, beating out the Warriors by a full point. It is time to take Houston seriously as a contender because nothing is guaranteed to the Warriors, despite having played in the past three NBA Finals. If there is a team to dethrone the Warriors as Western Conference Champions, it is Houston.
Of course, it is easy to credit the evolution of the team to one player, but it has not been all Chris Paul that has been behind the improvement. The defense is anchored by the young Clint Capela, who could be in line for a max contract this offseason. The Rockets felt confident enough in Capela to part ways with Dwight Howard, and that was a wise decision because he is far more impactful than the aged Howard is at this juncture in D12’s career.
Capela has averaged a double-double this season with 14.2 points and 11 rebounds per game, and a PER of 24.8. Beyond Capela, reserve Eric Gordon has found his niche as an NBA player. The sharpshooter is averaging 18.7 points per game off the Houston bench while shooting 9.1 threes per game. Houston as a team averages 42.2 threes attempted per game, which is an NBA league record.
The Rockets connected on 36.6 percent of those, which is the noted difference in what has become the most efficient offensive regular season in league history. The Rockets round out its rotation with some solid vets: Trevor Ariza, Gerald Green, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and the ageless Joe Johnson. In addition to that, Ryan Anderson is a perfect starting-4 for Houston with his range and quick release. All signs point to Chris Paul and James Harden having the perfectly competent of shooters around them to really push this Rockets team deep into the playoffs, potentially far enough to usurp the Dubs’ place as Conference Champions.
SAN ANTONIO
San Antonio is struggling mightily. It has dropped eight of its past 10 games and fallen to the No. 7 spot in the West. The Spurs have been without star player Kawhi Leonard for most of the season, and LaMarcus Aldridge has fallen off wherein he was carrying the team for a while in Leonard’s absence. Aldridge shot just 5 of 16 from the field in the most recent 104-94 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Spurs allowed the Thunder to have a plus-7 advantage on the boards while efficiently canning 10 of 28 threes against San Antonio in the game.
The Spurs trademark defense has been flat, and the scoring prowess of an aging Aldridge does not seem to be enough to carry this team through the playoffs if it should even arrive at the 2018 postseason.
The thought of a Gregg Popovich team being lottery-bound barely sounds right, but the Spurs have been aging for some time, and its most youthful superstar, Kawhi Leonard, may never play again in Silver and Black.
While there is little doubt this organization will build its way back to the top, we may be on the verge of seeing a changing of the guard, given that Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have been reduced to role players, Tim Duncan is retired, and the one the torch was passed to, does not seem interested in carrying it. No one is really certain what is going on with Leonard.
