NBA on ESPN Odds, Picks, Trends: Denver Nuggets at L.A. Lakers

Big South Tournament

Denver at L.A. Lakers

Time: 9:30 PM CST (ESPN)

Spread: DEN -5.5

Total: 231

Odds c/o 5dimes

LAL TEAM NOTES:

The Lakers are 18-14 at home this season. It sits 5.5 games behind No. 8 San Antonio in the Western Conference standings with a 30-34 overall record. It would nearly require a flawless finishing stretch from LeBron James and company to crash the 2019 postseason.

The Lakers had flirted with jettisoning most of its young talent in hopes of acquiring Anthony Davis, but the Pelicans simply were not taking the deal, no matter how much butter and icing Magic Johnson put on it. Instead, the team will likely make its run at Davis in free agency, which is probably for the best as it is. The Lakers have built up some young talent that needs to be given time to mature, rather than dealing the whole wad of it for one proven superstar.

Kyle Kuzma has looked to have some “superstar” in him at times, and Brandon Ingram is an enigma worth seeing out, as well. The Lakers have seemed to demote Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the bench, and that is something of a surprise since he was initially acquired to be the defensive 2-guard L.A. needed in its backcourt rotation.

Second-year point guard Josh Hart, too, likely has a promising future of his own. The Lakers simply have too much going on to let it all go in hopes of acquiring Davis, and it should consider itself lucky that Dell Demps asked too much for Davis, because L.A., really, was already offering too much with Lonzo Ball, Ingram, Kuzma, and several other parts (including draft picks). With a big offseason ahead, this Year 1 of the James era will have to be attributed mostly to the realms of “a learning experience.” It will be James’ first time missing the postseason in 10 years after it comes to pass.

DEN TEAM NOTES:

Key behind the Denver Nuggets’ unorthodox attack is the play of “point-center” Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets run its offense through its talented 5-man, and Jokic leads all centers in assists per game at 7.5 per game. Adding that to his 19.2 points and 10.2 rebounds per game produce a team-best PER of 26.1 as Jokic is quietly one of the league’s best big men. His strong passing abilities enable the Nuggets to play Jamal Murray at the point guard position where he ranks No. 2 on the team in scoring at 18.3 points per game. The Nuggets have been without Will Barton the majority of the season, too, which is no small loss as he is the team’s No. 3 offensive option.

Oddly, Paul Millsap’s role has declined heavily this season and the former All-Star is averaging under 13 points per game. The Nuggets have a deep rotation of talented scorers and average 110.3 points per game with six players averaging double-figures. Among those is Monte Morris at 10.0 points per game and Malik Beasley nearly at 9.8 per game. Both are talented guards that are finally receiving their chances in the Denver Nuggets backcourt following the jettisoning of one-time Nugget Emmanuel Mudiay.

Denver also is able to go into its second unit and produce a similar style play given the talents of backup center Mason Plumlee. He functioned as a point-center of sorts while in Portland and he averages 2.4 assists per game in under 20 minutes of play. The Nuggets have a legitimate 9 or 10-man rotation and with Jokic it truly possesses a franchise player capable of making game-changing plays and having phenomenal nightly performances. Not many are still sleeping on what the Nuggets might be capable of in the 2019 postseason.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Denver
  • Nuggets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Nuggets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.
  • Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
L.A. Lakers
  • Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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