Dallas at Golden State
Time: 10:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: GSW -10
Total: 208
Betting odds c/o Bovada
Dallas, perplexingly has not made the best use of Rajon Rondo. The long-time Boston Celtic is struggling to adjust to life in Dallas, averaging just 28 minutes per game while posting a PER nearly four points below the league average (just 11.2). He’s dishing out only 6.2 assists per game, the penchant of Rondo’s strong play is not being maximized.
He’s clashed with coach Rick Carlisle and Amin El-Hassan of ESPN said he just isn’t even a good fit in Dallas. The Mavericks enter tonight’s contest at Oracle Arena as 10 point underdogs to the Golden State Warriors. NBA live odds also list the total as 208. For an explanation of how to bet an over/under, see our NBA odds explained.
Part of Rondo’s issues are due to Monta Ellis. Ellis is a high usage guard dependent on having the ball in his hands to score. And because Ellis is the primary source of Dallas’ offense, it has proven counterproductive to overly rely on Rondo’s creation. Dirk Nowitzki can get his shot off without the help of either guard, and Chandler Parsons picks and chooses his spots to score without needing a lot of plays called either. Rondo had 10 points, nine assists and seven boards in the Mavs 94-75 loss to the Trail Blazers last night (Mar 5), though he did shoot just 5 of 13 from the field.
Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire, too, can find plenty of opportunistic buckets. This basically renders it a power struggle between Ellis and Rondo in the backcourt, and Ellis has both tenure and the early successes of this season to rely on keeping his role within the offense. Rondo is still coming up with 1.32 steals in his 28 minutes a game, but it seems that Dallas is not really getting what it bargained for when the team added the All-Star into the mix. Stoudemire has played very well the last two contests, hitting 11 of 16 from the floor for 13 points per game in 18.5 minutes per contest. This is the type of role the Mavericks had in mind when it claimed Stoudemire off waivers.
Chandler Parsons dubiously has been worth the contract he received, too, considering his play has still hovered at about average production for an NBA small forward. He’s also nursing a bone bruise on his left ankle which has held him out of the past two contests. Parsons is unlikely to return tonight, and there is no immediate timetable regarding his availability.
The Mavs are a strong team because it has a lot of depth and is well coached, but not because Nowitzki is the same player he was when the team won the 2010 Finals, nor because Ellis is capable of carrying a team through the postseason. In other words, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered in Dallas and it’s going to take more than a three-game win streak to inspire confidence in the loaded West. Defeating the Hawks tonight would be one bigger step towards doing so, but for a 39-20 team, it lacks a lot of the defining factors that seem to be indicative of championships squads.
Golden State is putting the caps on what is going to be a No. 1 seeded run in the West. Draymond Green said earlier this week that he is trying to enjoy the ride because the Warriors will likely never be together as constructed again. Green, however, is a part of that problem as he is going to likely end up elsewhere. Many have speculated the former Michigan State Spartan will receive a max-contract, and whether or not that is true, the Warriors can only afford to keep so many horses.
Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry as a tandem can carry this team indefinitely, and the Warriors average a league best 110 points per game. David Lee has gone from a 20/10 All-Star to a fringe performer in light of Green’s emergence, and maybe the Warriors could find a way to coax more value out of Lee if Green is in fact lost. The Warriors should be able to make a run at a title this year, and with the depth the team has Steve Kerr has a lot of options for how he is going to counter the other beastly squads in the Western Conference.
