Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets
Time: 8 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: HOU -3
Betting Odds c/o Bovada
The Chicago Bulls are 30-19 SU and in first place in the Central Division but will have a tough time traveling to Houston to face a high scoring Rockets team playing sans Dwight Howard. The Rockets nonetheless are 3-point favorites as listed at oddsmaker Bovada.
The Bulls do a number of things very well, and free agent signee Pau Gasol is the culprit behind most of the improvement. The Bulls rank No. 2 in the NBA in rebounding (45.7 per game) while also racking up 102.1 points per game. Gasol leads the team in rebounding with 12 per game, three of those coming on the offensive end. In addition, Joakim Noah still averages nearly 10 boards per game while Taj Gibson brings another seven rebounds off the bench. The Bulls clean the glass up.
Jimmy Butler is making his first All-Star appearance and has a throw back defensive oriented game modeled very much after Sidney Moncrief during his tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks in the 80s. Butler is posting 20.5 points per game, but is a disruption defensively, getting a lot of deflections that lead to team steals.
“Jimmy Buckets” still averages 1.8 steals per game, but his turnover forcing greatly exceeds that figure. He also helps well to cover and strengthen the rusty defensive movements of Derrick Rose (more on him later). Butler has the second-highest PER of any Bull behind only Pau Gasol.
Rose has appeared in 38 of the Bulls’ contest this year, and he’s still seeing 30 plus minutes per game while available. His average o 18.6 points per game ranks only behind Butler, though Rose has been very inefficient, posting an average PER of 16. He has hit just 40 percent from the floor and under 30 percent from three. He’s getting more attempts than Butler, but just not hitting at anywhere near the same clip (Butler is 46 percent field, 33 percent triples).
The Bulls high powered attack of Butler/Rose/Gasol is going up against a lot of fire power on the Houston Rockets. And by Rockets, we mean James Harden. Harden is a dangerous player with the ball because of his true triple threat nature: put it on the floor to get to the basket, hit a three, or make a deft pass leading to a bucket.
The former Sixth Man of the Year is now contending for MVP, averaging 27 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game. Remarkably, Harden also comes up with 2.81 steals/blocks per game, and it’s a result of the tough defense of Pat Beverley and Trevor Ariza. Bev and Trev stop penetration and it allows Harden to gamble on passing lanes. He’s nursing a knee injury but that likely won’t slow him down. If it does, expect coach Kevin McHale to pull the plug quickly. This is a regular season game and Harden’s health trumps any potential victory here.
The Rockets are a much better team defensively than often credited for, and Harden is a big reason why. While his defense lacked effort this year, he now has a renewed focus on making plays. Donatas Motiejunas is a liability defensively, but so is Josh Smith now that he plays so haphazardly and carelessly. Still, Beverley, Ariza and Dwight Howard (once healthy) gives Houston three exceptional defenders whose talents more than compensate for the shortcomings of Harden/Smith; and the inconsistent nature of Terrence Jones.
Smith is hitting just 29 percent from three-point range and 43 percent from the floor. He seems to gel well in Houston’s offense, but his propensity towards taking so many poor jumpers is nearly irreparable due to the length of his career thus far and his sheer mediocrity.
Playing with childhood teammate Dwight Howard makes a nice story, but both have declined and if the Rockets make it out of the West, it will be because of a man with a grizzly beard, not so much due to a dunk show by AAU products. Even so, bettors may expect the Bulls to prevail. The Bulls defense is now middle of the pack and though the Rockets are so dangerous in transition, the team lacks presence without Howard in the half court game. The Bulls will seek to control pace.
Butler may limit Harden in the backcourt, but it won’t matter because in transition Harden is going to get his looks regardless of Butler’s actions defensively.
Limiting every other Rocket will lead to a Bulls ‘W’ and coach Tom Thibodeau should have some blueprint for slowing down Harden and the Rockets’ three-point assault.
BETTING TRENDS (c/o Covers.com):
| Chicago | Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Under is 11-2 in Bulls last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. |
| Houston | Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games following a ATS loss. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. |
| Head to Head | Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Houston. Over is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings. Bulls are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
INJURIES (out): Mike Dunleavy, GF, Bulls; Dwight Howard, C, Rockets
Expected to play: James Harden, G, Rockets; Jimmy Butler, G, Bulls
