Golden State at San Antonio
Time: 7:30 PM CT (ABC)
Spread: SAS -12.5
Total: 200.5
Betting odds c/o 5dimes
ABC cannot be too pleased. Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said he plans to sit Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green in this showdown with the San Antonio Spurs Saturday night.
Gregg Popovich, never one to be outdone, will probably match that by resting several key players. That announcement has not been made, however.
Accordingly, NBA oddsmakers have set the line 12.5 points in favor of the hosting Spurs, in what will be a battle of second units. This was supposed to be a tight game, part of the race of the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, but ABC and NBA fans will have to stomach a game of reserves starting, instead.
Handicapping this game, accordingly, becomes something of a mess. The Spurs probably need and want this game more than the Warriors, though. San Antonio trails Golden State by just 1.5 games, and with Kevin Durant on the shelf for another month, the Warriors may just be biding time until the postseason. To entertain the delusion that a 73-win team needs homecourt advantage is probably a bit crazy, but at the same time San Antonio is 23-6 at home and a Western Conference Finals could be largely decided by that homecourt advantage. Whatsoever the case, Kerr does not care: he is resting his stars and San Antonio should win this game big, whether Kawhi Leonard rests to match it, or not.
The reasons for determining this spread to be both fair, and even conservative, hinges on the fact that the Spurs have an even better bench than Golden State. Since moving Dewayne Dedmon into the starting lineup, the bench has been even better with Pau Gasol in the second unit to score and make plays.
Dedmon, for his part, is thriving as a starter. He averages a humble line of five points and six rebounds per game, but he comes up with 1.37 steals/blocks in just 17 minutes a night while playing an absolutely crucial role as a rim protector and finisher around the basket.
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Adding veteran David Lee into this mix gives San Antonio plenty of depth. LaMarcus Aldridge is still the mid-range master, and he is averaging 17.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Granted those numbers have declined precipitously since his time in Portland, but Aldridge still represents a go-to threat at the end of games that Gregg Popovich can get the most out of.
As for the Warriors, they are coming off back-to-back losses and may have a rare three-game losing streak after tonight’s game. They likely will. Golden State will turn to a host of reserves that includes Ian Clark, JaVale McGee and Shaun Livingston, and while the trio is not untalented, they are what they are: bench players. Patrick McCaw and Matt Barnes will also see heavy minutes. This likely will not a be a pretty game for Warriors fans, but stranger things have happened on a team that tends to click pretty well offensively. It just remains to be seen whether Golden State is worth much with all four of its All-Stars unavailable for this game.
Kerr may have a good laugh at ABC’s expense, but one wonders if this might not come back to haunt the Warriors by the Western Conference Finals, given the high likelihood San Antonio claims the No. 1 seed in the West. Of course, the biggest issue for the Warriors this season is Durant’s injury. How Golden State handles his return will be a source of heavy intrigue.
It seems foolish to wager a future Hall of Famer’s career against an injury, but rings are elusive and Durant has yet to win one. Might he push for an early return, or will he play it smart and make sure he is fully recovered? How will Golden State deal with it if Durant is to miss the first round entirely? All these questions loom much more heavily than concerns over that No. 1 seed.
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